According to an analysis by Krungsri Securities (KSS), B.Grimm Power Public Company Limited (SET: BGRIM) is expected to announce a net profit of THB 54 million for 2Q25, representing a drop of 77% year-on-year and 92% quarter-on-quarter.
Stripping out a foreign exchange loss of approximately THB 403 million, normalized earnings would stand at THB 457 million, still down 24% from a year earlier and off 39% from the previous quarter.
The weaker profit largely stems from retrospective gas charges by PTT for the period during which the feed-in tariffs (Ft) were capped at THB 3.99 per unit in 2023. BGRIM’s industrial user (IU) clients tied to the Ft adjustment mechanism have been unable to pass on these extra costs, compressing the company’s spark spread to an estimated THB 0.78 per unit for the quarter. The average gas price surged to THB 370 per MMBtu, up 21% from last year and 11% from the previous quarter.
Furthermore, operating expenses are expected to rise, mainly due to costs associated with overseas transactions. Meanwhile, the anticipated normalized earnings do not account for potential FX gains embedded in BGRIM’s equity income—if these are excluded from first half results, core earnings would be about 52% of KSS’ full-year estimate.
In 3Q25, KSS forecasts the company’s normalized profit to dip year-on-year, coming off a high 3Q24 base driven by strong steam sales, but expects a quarter-on-quarter improvement as the spark spread recovers on the back of stable Ft and declining pooled gas prices.
As a result, the analyst maintains earnings forecasts and a ‘Neutral’ rating for BGRIM, anticipating signs of a sustained recovery by 2026.
Factors that may influence BGRIM’s outlook include potential delays in the Nakwol 1 project, changes in industrial electricity sales, and regulatory moves on electricity tariffs in Vietnam. The company is expected to release its 2Q25 earnings on August 13.
