On Wednesday at 3:50 PM (Bangkok time), the share price of Indorama Ventures Public Company Limited (SET: IVL) gained 4.00% or THB 0.90 to THB 23.40, with a trading value of THB 745.15 million.
UOB Kay Hian Securities (Thailand) (UOBKH) sees signs of a profit rebound for IVL in the second half of the year, following significant losses in the first six months, as the company is expected to be moving past its toughest period, citing improvements in its core product chains, cost adjustments, and potential upside from prospective asset sales as key factors.
With these positive shifts, the brokerage firm maintains a ‘Buy’ recommendation, with a target price of THB 27 per share.
IVL is scheduled to announce its second-quarter results on August 14. Management has observed early signs of market recovery for the latter half of 2025, particularly in the polyethylene terephthalate (PET) and monoethylene glycol (MEG) segments. A strong turnaround is anticipated in 2026 as demand normalizes and supply constraints take effect.
The company has highlighted China’s ongoing policy to shutter inefficient petrochemical plants, a strategy aimed at addressing long-term global overcapacity and improving PET profit margins—moves expected to bolster IVL’s competitive advantage. Furthermore, the U.S. tariff implementation is seen by IVL as a benefit, given that 40% of its production capacity is based in the U.S., affording the firm a cost and market access edge over many Asian exporters.
On the financial front, forecasts point to a sharp earnings recovery, with core profit in the second quarter expected to reach THB 600 million, reversing a THB 975 million core loss reported in the first quarter. However, a minor net loss of THB 140 million is still projected, primarily due to inventory revaluation effects.
The outlook is based on a 5% quarter-on-quarter increase in production volumes to 3.4 million tonnes, and a rise in core EBITDA margins to $90 per tonne from $84 per tonne in the first quarter. Integrated PET benchmark spreads are anticipated to improve to $132 per tonne, up from $116 in the first quarter, while MTBE spreads also strengthened to $282 per tonne compared to $271 previously.
In addition, management reaffirmed plans to spin off and list two business units: the downstream IOD (Indovinya) business, which focuses on surfactants and coatings, and the packaging segment. The targeted initial public offerings (IPOs), expected by 2026, are designed to unlock value and further reinforce IVL’s financial ratios.
After the spinoff, IVL will retain nearly a 70% stake in the separated entities, with proceeds projected to reduce debt by $1 billion and potentially deliver a one-time profit gain.
