Maybank Securities reiterates a ‘Buy’ recommendation on Muangthai Capital Public Company Limited (SET: MTC), setting a price target of THB 45 per share. The brokerage firm points to MTC’s premium valuation of 12 times projected 2025 earnings, notably higher than industry peers Tidlor Holdings (SET: TIDLOR) and Srisawad Corporation (SET: SAWAD), which currently trade at 11 and 9 times forward earnings, respectively.
The analyst attributes this valuation gap to MTC’s leading market share in small-size motorcycle title loans and its ability to sustain stable asset quality while also forecasting lower asset write-offs and reduced losses from motorcycle and car sales in 2025, underpinned by improving used vehicle prices from MTC’s eight auction centers nationwide.
Maybank projects MTC’s loan growth of 12% in 2025 and another 10% in 2026, roughly in line with the company’s guidance of 10–15%. The company serves 3.5 million customers, benefitting from broad reach into local communities—an edge that supports its market leadership.
However, Maybank notes that MTC’s cost of funding is likely to decline more slowly than its peers, due to its exposure to USD-denominated debentures, which carry higher coupon rates than THB issuances. While domestic sources account for 80% of total funding, extending the maturity of both debentures and bank loans should help mitigate liquidity risk. The analyst expects MTC’s cost of funding to drop by 6 basis points in FY26, less than both TIDLOR and SAWAD, which are forecast to see a decline of around 10 basis points.
MTC’s dominance is made clear by its estimated THB 54 billion portfolio in motorcycle title loans as of 2Q25, compared to THB 14 billion each for TIDLOR and SAWAD. Maybank views this segment as delivering the best risk-adjusted returns, owing to strong collection rates and stable asset quality.
Structural advantages, including a vast branch and employee network, are expected to fortify MTC’s lead over both existing competitors and new entrants—particularly as banks and other lenders are more likely to target larger loan products rather than scale up in motorcycle titles.
Maybank forecasts MTC’s earnings to rise 12% year-on-year in FY25, followed by an 8% increase in FY26. The upbeat projection is anchored by sustained loan growth, prudent cost controls, and continued stability in asset quality. The cost-to-income ratio is forecast to trend lower as branch efficiency improves.
Concerns around weak farm income are seen as manageable, given anticipated government support programs. Recently, the Thai Cabinet approved THB 114 billion in financial aid for rice farmers, including direct cash handouts and credit schemes aimed at stabilizing paddy prices.
