Yesterday, Thailand’s SET Index closed at 1,250.09 points, increased 2.06 points or 0.17% with a trading value of THB 35.79 billion. The Thai stock market remains range-bound as investors await Friday’s pivotal Constitutional Court ruling on Prime Minister Paetongtarn Shinawatra’s audio clip case.
Liberator Securities notes that the outcome of the court decision could serve as a major unlocking event for Thai politics, bringing much-needed clarity to investors. Should the court find the Prime Minister guilty, it is widely expected that the Pheu Thai Party would promptly nominate a new Prime Minister, maintaining the existing government coalition.
Currently, the index is attempting to rebound while awaiting definitive direction, said a Liberator analyst, who set support level at 1,240 points and resistance at 1,270 points.
Maybank Securities (Thailand) outlines two key scenarios in relation to the court’s verdict:
1) If the Prime Minister is acquitted, lingering medium-to-long-term risks from potential future political lawsuits could persistently weigh on sentiment.
2) If the Prime Minister is dismissed, the entire Cabinet would also be ousted, triggering a process to appoint a new Prime Minister and Cabinet. While market reaction may initially be negative due to the temporary political vacuum, Maybank believes that the downside will be limited.
Referencing the Srettha Thavisin premiership, the brokerage expects a new Prime Minister could be selected within two days, and the new Cabinet within one month—with no anticipated delays to the 2026 fiscal budget.
Maybank highlights buying opportunities for stocks likely to experience earnings recovery, including industrial estate operators like WHA Corporation PCL (SET: WHA), tourism plays such as The Erawan Group PCL (SET: ERW) and Central Pattana PCL (SET: CPN).
The firm also emphasizes interest rate-sensitive beneficiaries such as Srisawad Corporation PCL (SET: SAWAD), Muangthai Capital PCL (SET: MTC), BCPG PCL (SET: BCPG), and Global Power Synergy PCL (SET: GPSC).
UOB Kay Hian (Thailand) (UOBKH) outlines three possible scenarios: dismissal of charges, removal from office, or appointment of a new coalition-nominated Prime Minister, possibly coupled with Bhumjaithai’s return to the government.
Regardless of outcome, UOBKH expects Thai politics to ultimately move towards a House dissolution within the next three to six months. The economic impact is projected to be contained, as the 2026 budget bill has already passed the House of Representatives.
Even in the worst-case scenario, the SET Index will not fall below 1,200 points, UOBKH added.
KGI Securities (Thailand) also outlined a similar outlook to Liberator’s breakdown, but stated that if the prime minister is acquitted, the lingering uncertainty would be cleared, allowing the government to move ahead robustly.
However, KGI add that downside risks to the SET are capped under both scenarios, given:
1) Expectations that the Federal Reserve and Thailand’s Monetary Policy Committee (MPC) will move towards policy easing for the remainder of 2025, cushioning the impact of global headwinds.
2) The market has already priced in the deceleration in Thailand’s GDP growth, with consensus estimates pointing to around 1% YoY growth in the second half, down from 3% in H1.
Along with Maybank, KGI maintains a focus on interest rate-sensitive stocks, favoring certain real estate, finance, and utility names, such as AP (Thailand) PCL (SET: AP), Origin Property PCL (SET: ORI), SAWAD, and B.Grimm Power PCL (SET: BGRIM).
Asia Plus Securities notes a number of high-profile political cases—particularly those involving the Shinawatra family and key Pheu Thai figures—are due for decisions between late August and early September. The outcomes could significantly influence the political landscape.
The scenarios range from the Prime Minister retaining her position if cleared; to a leadership change and possible snap election, should either Paetongtarn or Thaksin be found guilty. If all charges are dismissed, the current government would continue, restoring investor confidence and opening the door for foreign fund flows.
