According to an analysis by KGI Securities (KGI), Plan B Media Public Company Limited (SET: PLANB) faces a more challenging backdrop for the rest of 2025 after a leading industry association sharply cut its advertising spend forecasts.
The Media Agency Association of Thailand (MAAT) reported that advertising expenditures fell 1.1% year-on-year for the first seven months of 2025, prompting it to slash its full-year growth estimate to just 0.1%, down from 3.9% previously. The revision highlights increasing caution among advertisers, as sluggish economic conditions and restrained consumer spending take a toll on the sector.
While outdoor advertising notched a modest 2% growth in the January-July period, MAAT expects a rebound with a 13% jump forecasted for the remaining months of the year. However, KGI Securities remains cautious, projecting only single-digit growth for out-of-home (OOH) advertising on expectations of a further slowdown in GDP and consumption in the second half.
Despite expanding its OOH advertising capacity by nearly 7% year-on-year in the first half of 2025, PLANB has been unable to fully capitalize on its increased inventory. The company’s utilization rate slipped to 70.4% from 72.9% a year earlier. The trend has continued into the current quarter, with utilization averaging 72-73%, compared to 75.5% in 3Q24 and 72.9% in 2Q25.
Coupled with slower growth in engagement marketing revenues, PLANB’s outlook for the latter half of 2025 remains subdued. Nevertheless, the company’s earnings are expected to see some improvement, buoyed by its 50% stake in Hello LED, exclusive marketing rights for the English Premier League in Thailand, and its management of VGI’s media assets.
In light of the tougher environment, KGI Securities has fine-tuned its forecasts, trimming PLANB’s earnings outlook by 3% for 2025 and 4% for 2026. The analyst now expects net profits to reach THB 1.0 billion in 2025 (up 5% year-on-year) and THB 1.2 billion in 2026 (up 6% year-on-year), reflecting slight reductions in utilization rate and gross margins. Importantly, a 1% change in utilization rate could affect PLANB’s earnings by 4-5%.
Following these developments, KGI reiterates a ‘Neutral’ rating on PLANB, with a target price of THB 5.00 per share, citing tempered growth expectations within the advertising industry amid economic sluggishness.
