Krungsri Securities commented that CP Axtra Public Company Limited (SET: CPAXT)’s announcement to acquire a 100% stake in Renewed Hope is a mildly positive development, as it is expected to boost earnings per share.
The upgrade, though not expected to be significant, should boost 1) CPAXT’s access to the HORECA (Hotels, Restaurants, and Catering) customer segment in Malaysia, and 2) earnings per share since the profit generated from Renewed Hope is higher than the financial cost of the acquisition.
Despite these positives, the analyst maintains a “NEUTRAL” recommendation for CPAXT, with a target price of THB 21 per share. The rationale is that CPAXT’s favorable outlook—particularly in terms of current-quarter Same Store Sales Growth (SSSG), which is stable and outperforming peers—has already been priced in.
In terms of Renewed Hope’s financials, the company reported revenues of THB 8.3 billion, up 11% year-on-year in 2024, with a net profit of THB 448 million. Based on a purchase price of THB 8 billion, this implies a P/E ratio of 18.5 times for 2024. The acquisition will be funded entirely through financial loan, and the analyst estimates the borrowing cost at approximately 2.5%.
After accounting for financial costs, Renewed Hope’s annual profit contribution is projected at approximately THB 250 million, which represents roughly 1.9% of the analyst’s full-year profit forecast for CPAXT in 2026, estimated at THB 13.2 billion. The financial consolidation is expected in 3Q25 and may include a one-off transaction-related fee in the quarter.
Meanwhile, Pi Securities has a neutral outlook on CPAXT’s acquisition deal, estimating incremental profit from the transaction at around THB 200 million per year, or about 2% of CPAXT’s profit. As such, Pi Securities maintains a “BUY” recommendation with a fair value estimate of THB 26 per share. For same-store sales growth in August 2025, Makro’s performance remained steady year-on-year, while Lotus’s saw a 0.5% improvement year-on-year, driven by Lotus’s Malaysia.
CPAXT disclosed that Renewed Hope achieved double-digit annual growth between 2020 and 2024. In 2023, the company recorded sales of MYR 988 million (~THB 7.5 billion) with a net profit margin of 7.2%. For 2024, sales were at MYR 1,100 million (~THB 8.1 billion) with a net margin of 5.4%. Applying the 2024 profit, the acquisition’s P/E is approximately 18 times, near CPAXT’s trailing P/E.
The expected synergies include supporting the growth of the food business in the ASEAN region and expanding CPAXT’s Food Service customer base in Malaysia. Nevertheless, the analysts maintain a neutral stance on the deal and estimate additional profit from the acquisition at around THB 200 million per year, forming about 2% of CPAXT’s annual profits.
