DAOL Securities (Thailand) noted that the Royal Gazette on December 2, 2025, published an announcement from the Alcoholic Beverage Control Committee regarding updated restrictions on alcohol consumption, with several notable changes.
- The new regulation permits the sale of alcoholic beverages between 2:00 PM and 5:00 PM—a period previously prohibited—for a trial period of 180 days before reassessment.
- For customers drinking inside establishments, if they begin consuming alcohol before the end of the sales period, they may continue drinking for up to one additional hour, until 1:00 AM, after the venue closes or the official sales period ends at midnight.
The analyst views these changes as modestly positive, anticipating some benefits for select equities from the relaxation of alcohol sales restrictions.
The Commerce sector, including CPALL, BJC, and CPAXT, is expected to gain the most from the extended sales hours. This will support growth in the food segment’s sales, noting that cigarettes and alcoholic beverages account for roughly 10% of total revenue.
DAOL maintains its 2025 net profit estimate for CPAXT at 10.5 billion baht, steady year-on-year, and forecasts 11.9 billion baht for 2026, up 13%. The ‘Buy’ recommendation on CPAXT is reaffirmed, with a target price of 23.00 baht.
A secondary beneficiary group includes CBG, which generates 39% of its revenue from alcohol distribution. The company’s distribution business is anticipated to achieve record sales, with additional momentum from packaging sales to the alcohol industry.
DAOL Securities maintains its 2025 net profit estimate for CBG at 2.83 billion baht, stable year-on-year, and projects 3.27 billion baht in 2026, a 16% increase. The ‘Buy’ call and 56.00 baht target price are maintained, based on a 2026 PER of 17x (equivalent to 1.75 standard deviations below the five-year average).
Despite a 16% drop in share price over the last three months, attributed mainly to negative factors in Cambodia, the current valuation—trading at a 2026 PER of 13.7x—has yet to fully reflect the significant earnings recovery expected in 2026.
