Takit Chardcherdsak, Head of Research at Krungsri Securities, revealed to “Kaohoon” that the Stock Exchange of Thailand (SET) is expected to remain range-bound, with resistance at 1,250–1,255 points and support at 1,230–1,235 points.
Investors are closely watching political developments and today’s Senate vote on the 2026 budget—an important final hurdle. If the budget is approved, it would ease economic uncertainties during the transition period and boost confidence. However, if the bill is rejected, potentially leading to a House dissolution, the index could be pressured down to the 1,080 level.
On the external front, sentiment remains broadly positive. The U.S. Federal Reserve (Fed) is expected to cut interest rates at its 18–19 September meeting, which would benefit Thai equities and risk assets. Additionally, India and China have posted strong manufacturing and services PMI figures, suggesting greater global economic stability, while the recent Shanghai Cooperation Organization (SCO) meeting shows signs of increased global cooperation among key nations.
Strategically, Takit recommends investors focus on “Global Play” stocks, especially in the petrochemical sector, such as Indorama Ventures PCL (SET: IVL) and PTT Global Chemical PCL (SET: PTTGC). He also highlights opportunities in defensive stocks—including hospital operators and retailers poised to benefit from a stronger baht. Notably, retail chains showing signs of recovery, like CP, are particularly attractive.
Banking stocks also remain appealing for their dividend yields, with SCB X Siam Commercial Bank PCL (SET: SCB) standing out for its higher dividend payout and average asset quality and provisioning. Meanwhile, Krungthai Bank PCL (SET: KTB) stands out as the only bank to perform well in the third quarter.
For speculative trades, the real estate sector is seen as a beneficiary of the falling interest rate environment, especially AP (Thailand) PCL (SET: AP) and Supalai PCL (SET: SPALI), which have enjoyed positive responses to new condominium launches.
However, Takit warns that 3Q25 may be a low season for livestock and tourism sectors, potentially hampering investment momentum. He also notes that while banks may not be major drivers this year, 2026 is poised to be a recovery year for the financial sector and related investment themes.
