Apple is on track to reach a record high in iPhone shipments this year, with research firm IDC expecting the volume to reach 247.4 million. This figure represents a year-on-year increase of just over 6%, eclipsing the previous record of 236 million units set in 2021 during the release of the iPhone 13.
The spike is largely attributed to strong sales momentum behind the iPhone 17 lineup, with Nabila Popal, senior research director at IDC, highlighting that in China, “massive demand for iPhone 17 has significantly accelerated Apple’s performance.”
Investors viewed the launch of the device series in September as pivotal for Apple, which has faced growing competition from domestic manufacturers such as Huawei and scrutiny over its artificial intelligence strategy amid aggressive pushes by Android rivals.
IDC expects Apple’s 4Q shipments in China to jump 17% year-on-year, leading to revised growth forecasts for 2025 in the market to 3%, up from a previously anticipated 1% decline.
However, Apple’s postponement of its next base iPhone launch to early 2027 is forecast to drag iOS shipments in 2026 down by more than 4%. Furthermore, IDC anticipates that the rise of memory chip prices that push average selling prices of smartphones to historic highs will drag the worldwide shipments that year down by 0.9%
Component shortages are expected to tighten supply and intensify cost pressures, particularly for lower- and mid-tier Android models, which remain sensitive to pricing shifts. Anthony Scarsella, research director at IDC, noted that “next year will be a challenging time for the industry, however, IDC still believes the market could see record ASPs.”
With memory stocks expected to remain tight, vendors are anticipated to refocus product offerings on premium, higher-margin models to balance rising costs, while some may be forced to pass price increases directly to consumers. IDC projects the global average selling price to climb to $465 in 2026, pushing the market’s total value to an all-time high of $578.9 billion.
