As Bhumjaithai Party is expected to lead the government during the political vacuum before dissolving the House within four months, Krungsri noted that historical data shows that SET Index delivers an average of more than 5% return leading to the general election date.
Krungsri Securities (KSS) maintains the view that politics are entering a “refresh” stage with high probability that Bhumjaithai Party will lead the government. It is expected to push some policies, creating speculation opportunities in stocks benefiting from its key policies:
1.) THB 50k emergency loans without collateral + 3-year debt moratorium + contract farming + THB 2,000/month allowance for village health volunteers – positive for Domestic banks (SCB, KTB, KBANK), hire-purchase (MTC, SAWAD), retail (CPALL, GLOBAL).
2.) Free solar rooftop program-positive for GULF, GUNKUL.
3.) Landbridge – positive for contractors (STECON, CK), industrial estates (WHA, AMATA), logistics (SJWD).
4.) Tourism revenue THB 6tn over 4 years, target 80mn tourists, world-class festivals and wellness resorts – positive for tourism (ERW, CENTEL), hospitals (BDMS, BH). 5.) Electric buses – EA, BYD, NEX (short-term speculative with stop loss discipline). 6.) Life insurance fund for age 60+, payout THB 100k on death – positive for insurers (TLI, BLA).
7) Radiotherapy in all provinces + free dialysis in every district – upside for hospitals linked with government and social security patients (BCH).
8.) New government formation plays – STECON, STPI, PTG, PRM, AMA.
Additionally, KSS noted that optimism on elections in the near term could boost SET Index, referencing the last 5 elections (May 2023, Mar 2019, Feb 2011, Dec 2007, Feb 2005, Jan 2001), where in the 6 months pre-election, SET delivered average returns of +5.3% (60% chance of positive return).
