On Tuesday, the share price of Gulf Development Public Company Limited (SET: GULF) at the time of 2.20 p.m. was at THB 46.00, a THB 0.75 or 1.66% increase with a total trading value of THB 1,128.45 million.
Meanwhile, the share price of B.Grimm Power Public Company Limited (SET: BGRIM) at the same time was at THB 13.50, a THB 0.70 or 5.47% increase with a total trading value of THB 525.81 million.
The share price of Thai Airways International Public Company Limited (SET: THAI) was at THB 14.00, a THB 0.10 or 0.76% increase with a total trading value of THB 424.88 million.
The share price of PTT Public Company Limited (SET: PTT) was at THB 32.25, a THB 0.50 or 1.57% increase with a total trading value of THB 1,929.60 million.
Krungsri Securities stated in its research that the Thai baht touched 31.60 against the US dollar this morning, its most appreciated level in four years, supporting positive sentiment and fund flows to the SET Index as well as to energy, airline, import-related (telecom, consumer IT), and power plant stocks.
Daol Securities (Thailand) noted in its analysis that, as of this morning (September 9, 2025), the baht moved to 31.69 per US dollar—its highest in four years, having appreciated by approximately 2.2% quarter-to-date (QTD). The main drivers are the depreciation of the US dollar, reflecting expectations that the US Federal Reserve (FED) will ease monetary policy, together with a rally in global gold prices.
Stocks/industries identified to benefit from the appreciating baht include:
1) Airlines (THAI, AAV, BA): These companies have a higher proportion of USD-denominated expenses (fuel, aircraft leases, maintenance) than revenue from flight tickets, so a stronger baht translates into cost savings.
2) Power plants: With USD-denominated loans, these companies will book unrealized FX gains, although this is an accounting entry and does not impact cash flow. Key beneficiaries: GULF, BGRIM, GPSC.
3) Energy sector: The sector has a positive net exposure to movements of the US dollar against the Thai baht, as companies have dollar-denominated debt. As a result, TOP and PTTGC may record unrealized FX gains. Meanwhile, the impact on PTTEP and SPRC is expected to be limited, as they use the US dollar as their functional currency.
Dao Securities (Thailand) expects these stocks to outperform the SET Index:
1) AAV: Approximately $1 billion in debt; every 1 baht appreciation against the USD is expected to generate roughly THB 800 million in FX gain after tax, even though the company’s USD expenses slightly exceed income.
2) BGRIM (recommending “BUY” at a target price of THB 20): The company holds about $250 million in debt; every 1 baht appreciation is expected to generate around THB 250 million in FX gain.
3) TOP (recommending “HOLD” at a target price of THB 33): Dollar debt is 67% of total borrowings; with outstanding dollar bonds of $1,194 million, every 1 baht appreciation could yield about THB 1,194 million in FX gain (excluding hedging impacts).
Industries/stocks negatively affected by a stronger baht:
1) Food sector: Most revenue is from overseas. A 1-baht appreciation may reduce the companies’ profit by: SUN -8%, ITC -8%, TU -7%, AAI -6%, and SAPPE -5%.
2) Electronics: Most of the earnings come from exports. For every 1-baht appreciation, profits at KCE decline by 6% and HANA by 5%.
3) Other export-driven sectors: SAV (revenue and expenses mostly in USD): Every 1-baht appreciation reduces profit by 3%. PRM (USD revenue and expense nearly matched): Profit falls 2-3% for every 1-baht appreciation.
