Thapanee Kiatphaibool, Governor of the Tourism Authority of Thailand (TAT), revealed that the tourism situation during China’s National Day, or China Golden Week, from 26 September to 8 October 2025—which this year coincides with the Mid-Autumn Festival—expects around 200,000 Chinese tourists to enter Thailand, down 24% from 262,000 in the same period last year. This will generate revenue of THB 9.1 billion, a decrease of 17% year-on-year from approximately THB 10.91 billion.
The average spending of Chinese tourists stands at THB 6,600 per person per day, with an average length of stay of 6–8 nights per trip. Even though the number of tourists is declining, daily travel signals are beginning to recover, as advance flight bookings have increased by 5% compared to last year. Chinese tourists book flights about 15–40 days ahead and prefer to travel in small groups of no more than 9 people.
Daol Securities (Thailand) held a neutral view on Chinese tourist arrivals during Golden Week, noting that the TAT’s projection is “as expected.” The securities firm also saw the year-on-year contraction as “a smaller decrease,” compared to prior weekly figures, which showed a decline of approximately 35–40% versus last year.
Moreover, the 5% increase in advance flight bookings compared to the same period last year indicates a partial recovery in Chinese tourist numbers.
Stocks most likely to benefit from rising Chinese tourist arrivals, ranked by revenue proportion from this segment, are ERW, CENTEL, MINT, and SHR.
The brokerage assigns the sector an “Equal Weight” rating, with CENTEL and ERW as its top picks.
For Central Plaza Hotel Public Company Limited (SET: CENTEL), the recommendation is “Buy” with a target price of THB 36.00, supported by an expected profit increase in 3Q25 versus the previous quarter, based on improved bookings and revenue growth after 2Q25 marked the year’s low.
The Erawan Group Public Company Limited (SET: ERW) is also rated “Buy,” with a target price of THB 3.00. While the company’s 3Q25 profit is expected to contract year-on-year, it is set to increase from the previous quarter, as 2Q25 was the lowest point of the year, with a strong recovery anticipated in 4Q25.
