Sombat Narawutthichai, Secretary General of the Investment Analysts Association, disclosed the results of a survey of members consisting of analysts and fund managers from 27 institutions on their investment outlook for 4Q25. The survey shows that the Stock Exchange of Thailand Index (SET Index) is expected to fluctuate in the range of 1,234-1,356 points in 4Q25, closing the year at 1,313 points and year-end 2026 at 1,415 points.
Meanwhile, the average market earnings per share (EPS) forecast for 2025 is THB 85.14, close to the previous survey result of THB 85.43 per share, with the average EPS growth for 2025 forecast at 9.27%. The market EPS for 2026 is anticipated to average at THB 90.67.
Furthermore, the recommended asset allocation is as follows: cash and short-term deposits 8.48%, fixed income funds 20.89%, Thai equities or equity funds 26.63%, foreign equities or foreign equity funds 26.59%, gold or gold funds 9.17%, property funds or REITs 7.50%, and other assets such as Bitcoin or short-term fixed income instruments 0.74%.
For equities recommended by at least four brokerages (based on ticker symbol, alphabetically):
1) Advanced Info Service PCL (SET: ADVANC) – Expected to deliver quarterly YoY profit growth thanks to reduced competition and continued improvements in cost management. The entry of large Data Centers and Virtual Banks will also be long-term growth drivers.
2) CP All PCL (SET: CPALL) – Supported by government economic stimulus and awarded SET ESG Rating AAA.
3) CP Axtra PCL (SET: CPAXT) – Profit growth driven by synergies between Makro and Lotus’s, which help reduce redundant costs and achieve greater economies of scale.
4) Muangthai Capital PCL (SET: MTC) – Loan growth expected to outpace the sector and likely accelerate in 2H25 due to economic stimulus and entry into the high season.
5) PTT Exploration and Production PCL (SET: PTTEP) – Anticipated continuous production volume increase and high dividend yield.
Stocks to avoid: stocks in the electronics sector with overvalued share prices and banking stocks under pressure from narrowing interest margins.
For the policy rate outlook of the Bank of Thailand at the end of 2025, 68% of analysts expect a reduction to 1.25%, while 28% see it declining to 1%, and only 4% expect it to remain at 1.50% (as of September 30, the policy rate stands at 1.50%).
Additionally, analysts have recommended government policies supportive of the economy and worthwhile in terms of budget, proposing both short- and long-term measures, as follows:
For business sector support: Stimulating private sector investment, increased commercial bank lending, launching tourism stimulus measures, and focusing on corporate profit growth through Jump+ incentives.
For economic growth and infrastructure: Accelerating investment in infrastructure such as rail transit and Data Centers, emphasizing public sector projects that support economic growth, developing new S-Curve industries and technology.
For household sector support: Policies like tax deductions, boosting consumption through the “Shop Dee Mee Kuen” scheme, and supporting human resource development to upskill the workforce.
KTB reports strongest Q3 profit growth
According to Bualuang Securities (BLS), Thai banks are expected to report combined 3Q25 net profit of approximately THB 54,311 million, down 1% year-on-year (YoY) and down 4% quarter-on-quarter (QoQ), mainly due to a contraction in net interest margin (NIM) and higher loan-loss provisions.
Earnings forecasts by bank:
- Bangkok Bank PCL (SET: BBL): 3Q25 net profit forecast at THB 10,398 million, down 17% YoY and down 12% QoQ due to lower NIM and increased expenses.
- Kasikornbank PCL (SET: KBANK): 3Q25 net profit forecast at THB 11,280 million, down 6% YoY and down 10% QoQ, due to lower NIM and higher OPEX.
- Kiatnakin Phatra Bank PCL (SET: KKP): 3Q25 net profit forecast at THB 1,286 million, down 1% YoY and down 9% QoQ, due to contraction in loans and lower NIM.
- Krung Thai Bank PCL (SET: KTB): 3Q25 net profit forecast at THB 14,204 million, up 28% YoY and up 28% QoQ, supported by mark-to-market gains in Thai Airways International PCL (SET: THAI) shares.
- SCB X PCL (SET: SCB): 3Q25 net profit forecast at THB 10,608 million, down 3% YoY and down 17% QoQ, due to lower NIM and reduced lending.
- TISCO Financial Group PCL (SET: TISCO): 3Q25 net profit forecast at THB 1,648 million, down 4% YoY, supported by financial instrument gains but affected by declining NIM.
- TMBThanachart Bank PCL (SET: TTB): 3Q25 net profit forecast at THB 4,886 million, down 7% YoY and down 2% QoQ, reflecting loan contraction and lower NIM.
The non-performing loan (NPL) ratio inched up from 3.01% (June 30) to 3.04% (September 30). The loan-loss coverage ratio increased from 191.3% to 192.4%. BBL holds the highest coverage ratio (280.9%) and KTB follows (192.7%).
