2025 has been a year of profound recalibration for the Stock Exchange of Thailand (SET). Faced with a combination of aggressive global trade policies, shifting internal regulations, politics and the relentless forces of nature, the Thai market has had to navigate through one of its most volatile periods in recent years.
As we look back, five key events stand out as the defining pillars of the year’s financial narrative.
1) The Great Capital Flight: SET Index’s Struggle for Support
Throughout 2025, the SET Index remained under intense pressure, failing to regain the momentum seen in previous years. By late November, the index had contracted roughly 10% year-to-date, languishing near the 1,250–1,270 point range.
The primary culprit was a massive exodus of foreign capital. Net selling by foreign investors exceeded 113 billion THB by November, driven by a “risk-off” sentiment toward emerging markets. With Thailand’s GDP growth hovering at a modest 1.5%–1.8%, global funds pivoted toward more aggressive growth environments in the U.S. and India, leaving the SET to rely heavily on domestic institutional support, which is also shaken by political uncertainties and confidence.
2) “Liberation Day”: The April Tariff Shock
The most dramatic period of volatility occurred in early April, triggered by U.S. President Donald Trump’s “Liberation Day” announcement. On April 2, 2025, the administration unveiled a sweeping reciprocal tariff regime, including a 10% baseline tariff on all imports and a staggering 145% tariff on specific Chinese goods. The initial rate for Thailand was 38% before being lowered to 19% months later.
The reaction in Bangkok was swift and severe. The SET Index plummeted from 1,172.69 points at the close of April 2 to 1,074.51 points by April 8—a total collapse of 8.4% in just three trading sessions. This “flash crash” reflected deep-seated fears that Thailand’s export-led economy would become collateral damage in an escalating global trade war.
3) The “DELTA Effect” and the 10% Regulatory Cap
Delta Electronics (Thailand) PCL (SET: DELTA) continued its reign as the market’s most influential stock, often dictating the index’s direction due to its weight in the Thai stock market with its ties to global AI and data center demand. However, regulators have implemented measures to limit its influence on the SET50 and SET100 indices.
To curb volatility, the SET implemented a 10% stock weight cap. Previously, DELTA held a weight of roughly 13% in the SET50. This regulatory shift forced passive funds to rebalance, leading to forced sell-offs. The pressure was compounded by DELTA’s removal from the SETESG Index, signaling a tougher stance on governance and volatility management by Thai regulators.
4) The Banking “Dividend War”
Amidst a slowing credit environment and a late-year interest rate cut by the Bank of Thailand, commercial banks pivoted to a high-yield strategy to keep investors engaged. This created what analysts termed the “Dividend War.”
As loan growth stalled, major players like SCB, TISCO, and KTB utilized their strong capital buffers to offer record-breaking payouts. Average yields in the sector climbed significantly, with SCB X leading the pack at a staggering 7.6% and TISCO maintaining its reputation as a “cash cow” with yields near 7.05%. This turned the banking sector into a defensive “safe haven” for yield-hungry investors in a low-growth year.
5) Southern Floods: Economic Disruption and Recovery Plays
The year concluded with a severe natural disaster as catastrophic flooding hit ten southern provinces, notably Hat Yai, in late November. The University of the Thai Chamber of Commerce (UTCC) estimated the total economic damage at 40 billion baht, or roughly 0.22% of GDP.
Retail and consumer finance stocks like CPN, SAWAD, and MTC faced indirect pressure as purchasing power in the South evaporated. Conversely, the disaster triggered a late-December rally in the construction and home improvement sectors. Investors moved into stocks like HMPRO, GLOBAL, and DOHOME, anticipating a surge in demand for building materials as the government mobilized its multibillion-baht recovery fund.
Looking Ahead to 2026
As 2025 draws to a close, the SET remains in a period of transition. While the “Dividend War” provides a floor for the market, the long-term trajectory will depend on how Thai exporters adapt to the new tariff reality and whether foreign investors can be lured back by the market’s attractive valuations.
