On Friday, the share price of True Corporation Public Company Limited (SET: TRUE) at the time of 2.42 p.m. was at THB 11.30, a THB 0.40 or 3.67% increase with a total trading value of THB 1,836.55 million.
Kiatnakin Phatra Securities has reaffirmed its “Buy” rating on TRUE, with a price objective of THB 15.10, citing robust cost savings that are expected to drive a significant boost to the company’s earnings in 2025.
According to the brokerage, TRUE’s pre-exceptional net profit for the third quarter of 2025 is projected to reach THB 4.8 billion, representing a sharp 65% year-on-year jump and 15% increase quarter-on-quarter. The strong profit growth should be fueled primarily by spectrum cost savings, while topline growth is expected to remain mild. Kiatnakin Phatra forecasts that TRUE’s nine-month profit will cover 70% of its full-year estimate, and 82% of Bloomberg consensus, a reassuring sign of TRUE’s improving financial trajectory.
The core driver behind this profit uplift is the anticipated cost reduction following the expiry of the company’s 850MHz and 2300MHz spectrum contracts in early August. Kiatnakin Phatra expects TRUE to realize a cost saving of nearly THB 900 million in the quarter, with the full benefit of THB 1.3 billion per quarter expected to be reflected from the fourth quarter of 2025 onwards. Additionally, tower asset write-downs in Q3 2025 are set to further decrease network operating expenses.
However, the report noted persistent challenges on the revenue front. TRUE’s core service revenue, excluding interconnection charges (IC), is expected to remain flat year-on-year, with the impact of a network outage in Q2 2025 still weighing on results. Mobile service revenue is projected to remain flat or slightly decline compared to last year, while fixed broadband (FBB) revenue should continue to deliver mid-single-digit year-on-year growth. The company is currently modernizing its FBB network to attract more customers and accelerate revenue growth in this segment.
Despite short-term revenue pressures, Kiatnakin Phatra maintains its bullish stance on TRUE due to continued improvements in profitability and the potential for dividend payments in 2025.
