On Thursday, JPMorgan maintained an optimistic outlook on gold, forecasting that prices could average $5,055 per ounce by the end of the fourth quarter of 2026. This is based on expected robust demand, with investor and central bank buying anticipated to reach approximately 566 tons per quarter in 2026.
The investment bank emphasizes that gold remains its strongest conviction trade for the year, highlighting further upside potential as the U.S. Federal Reserve is set to begin a rate-cutting cycle.
JPMorgan strategists believe the combination of an easing Fed, heightened concerns about stagflation, debates over central bank independence, and persistent worries about currency debasement will continue to act as tailwinds for the precious metal.
Regarding the U.S. dollar’s role, JPMorgan’s view is that the ongoing rally in gold is less a story of de-dollarization or outright currency debasement, but more a reflection of gradual portfolio diversification. The bank observes that international holders of U.S. assets are reallocating small portions into gold as part of broader diversification strategies.
Notably, gold and silver slid in early trading Wednesday, compounding losses from Tuesday’s dramatic selloff, as investors moved to lock in gains following an extended rally that many now fear had pushed prices into overbought territory.
Spot gold declined as much as 3%, briefly sliding near $4,000 an ounce before trimming losses. This follows Tuesday’s plunge of up to 6.3%—the metal’s most significant intraday drop in over a dozen years.
JPMorgan analysts interpret the recent period of gold price consolidation as a healthy correction following rapid gains since August. They note that it is natural for markets to experience brief pullbacks after such sharp increases, and attribute the move to a temporary pause among investors rather than a fundamental shift in demand-supply dynamics.
Looking further ahead, JPMorgan reaffirms its long-term price target for gold at $6,000 per ounce by 2028, advising that the metal should be approached from a multi-year investment perspective.
Spot gold has set multiple record highs this year, most recently reaching $4,381.21 on Monday, representing a year-to-date gain of nearly 57% and positioning gold for its strongest annual performance since 1979.
