Thai Oil Public Company Limited (SET: TOP) has reported that on October 27th, Moody’s Ratings announced it would maintain the issuer rating for TOP’s senior unsecured debentures at Baa3, with a continued negative credit outlook.
This credit rating affirmation reflects TOP’s robust balance sheet following continuous debt reduction. Over the first nine months of 2025, TOP repaid a total of $933 million in debt and is set to receive approximately THB 18,230 million from the asset monetization project jointly executed with PTT Public Company Limited (SET: PTT) on September 25th. These will further strengthen the company’s financial position and liquidity.
Regarding the progress of the Clean Fuel Project (CFP), TOP is moving forward with the development, which is expected to be completed in 3Q28 with an investment budget of $7,151 million.
TOP has restructured project management to enhance efficiency, appointing Foster Wheeler Thailand as engineering, procurement, and construction management (EPCM) to accelerate progress as planned and ensure transparency in cost control at every stage. Moody’s considers this management approach a positive factor for project execution.
Moody’s also expects TOP’s financial metrics to improve over the next two years, backed by stable cash flows and effective cost control. The company remains committed to efficient implementation of the CFP alongside prudent financial management with continuous support from the parent company, PTT, which will enhance financial strength and long-term confidence among investors and stakeholders. This reinforces TOP’s role as a strategically important player in Thailand’s refining and petrochemical sector.
Currently, TOP’s fully integrated business structure incorporates both refining and petrochemical operations, with a refining capacity of 275,000 barrels per day—about 22% of Thailand’s total and the largest in the country.
TOP’s refinery is also among the most efficient in the Asia-Pacific region. The company is confident that its commitment to clean energy and sustainability will strengthen long-term competitiveness and bolster trust among shareholders, investors, and business partners. These projects are integral to enhancing TOP’s clean and flexible energy production capabilities in an environmentally friendly manner.
Analysts at Yuanta Securities (Thailand) stated that TOP is implementing its asset monetization plan, involving a 21-year long-term lease of certain infrastructure assets—such as crude oil tanks, SBM mooring buoys, truck-loading oil terminals, and land—to a new subsidiary (NewCo, 51% owned by TOP). These assets would then be leased back on a short-term basis (three years) for ongoing business operations.
Although this results in higher annual lease expenses (approximately THB 3,000 million), net impact is offset by 1) dividend income from NewCo (THB 1,100 million), 2) benefits from a tax shield (THB 600 million), and 3) lower interest expenses (THB 650 million), resulting in a net profit impact of just THB 600 million per year (under 5% of 2026 estimated earnings).
Additionally, TOP will receive THB 18,000 million in cash flow from the asset leasing transaction (to be completed within 2025), helping to reduce its debt burden and improve financial ratios. Therefore, the appropriate price target has been raised to THB 39, reflecting the stronger financial position following asset monetization, and the “Speculative Trading” recommendation is maintained.
Strategically, the analyst suggests investors wait for a potential entry point after the 3Q25 results (expected on November 7th) are released, as earnings may lag behind peers due to a major maintenance shutdown.
