Morgan Stanley has upped its short-term crude oil price projections in response to OPEC+’s recent announcement to suspend supply hikes. The Wall Street investment bank on Monday revised its Brent forecast for the first half of 2026 to $60 per barrel, marking an increase from its previous estimate of $57.50 per barrel.
According to Morgan Stanley, OPEC+—the coalition between the Organization of the Petroleum Exporting Countries and partner nations—announced on Sunday that it would forgo any production increases in the first quarter of 2026. This marks the first time the alliance will pause its supply restoration efforts since April, when it began reversing earlier production cuts.
The bank also noted a “substantial gap opening up” between the output quotas set by OPEC+ and actual production figures. Morgan Stanley’s analysis shows that the group’s oil output rose by just 500,000 barrels per day between March and October, falling well short of the 2.6 million barrels per day of quota increases officially declared over that period.
Brent crude has dropped 13% so far this year, amid early signs of an oversupplied market. However, Morgan Stanley expects the current surplus to balance out by the second half of 2027, with prices projected to rebound to $65 per barrel during that timeframe.
OPEC+ decided on Sunday to implement a modest increase in oil production for December by 137,000 barrels per day, while halting any additional output hikes during the first quarter of 2026, as the coalition of oil producers seeks to adjust its strategy in the face of mounting fears over a potential supply surplus.
