On Thursday at 11:00 AM (Bangkok time), the share price of BCPG Public Company Limited (SET: BCPG) gained 3.87% or THB 0.30 to THB 8.05, with a trading value of THB 86.63 million.
Krungsri Securities (KSS) remains optimistic on BCPG, following the company’s strong performance in the third quarter of 2025. BCPG reported normalized profit of THB 712 million, marking a surge of 57% year-on-year and 442% quarter-on-quarter. This result exceeded Krungsri’s and the market consensus by 3% and 13%, respectively.
The notable profit growth both annually and sequentially was primarily driven by two factors. First, the company’s share of profit rose sharply to THB 758 million, up 79% year-on-year and 135% quarter-on-quarter. This increase followed the full-quarter impact of higher Capacity Payment rates at BCPG’s U.S. gas-fired power plants, which climbed from $29/MW-day to $270/MW-day.
Second, electricity revenue climbed in line with peak season hydroelectric production from the company’s dams in Laos.
Nevertheless, the company’s 600-MW Monsoon wind power project in Laos, which commenced commercial operations in 3Q25, contributed a loss of THB 51 million.
Looking ahead, Krungsri expects normalized earnings in 4Q25 to rise year-on-year. The main drivers are an increased profit share from the Monsoon project as it enters its high season and continued high Capacity Payment rates from the U.S. gas plants, although a quarter-on-quarter decline is expected as the Lao hydro and U.S. gas power businesses move past their respective peak periods.
As a result, Krungsri maintains a ‘Buy’ rating, with an updated 2026 target price of THB 9.40 per share, based on a DCF valuation.
Kasikorn Securities (KS) echoed this view, noting BCPG’s 3Q25 net profit came in at THB 627 million – a turnaround from a net loss of THB 28 million in 3Q24 and a net loss of THB 651 million in 2Q25. This figure was in line with both the brokerage and market expectations.
Kasikorn also anticipates further improvement in normalized earnings for 4Q25, underpinned by higher Capacity Payment income from the U.S. gas plants and increased profit share as BCPG’s wind power project in Vietnam begins commercial operations in July 2025. The analyst reiterated its ‘Buy’ recommendation, with a target price unchanged at THB 11.00 per share.
Additionally, CGS International Securities (Thailand) (CGSI) noted that BCPG’s third-quarter 2025 net profit of THB 627 million marked a clear recovery from losses in the same period last year and the previous quarter, with core net profit surging to THB 712 million.
Total revenue reached THB 1.1 billion, a 41% increase sequentially, fueled by strong contributions from the wind power and tank terminal businesses, though it was slightly down 2% year-on-year. The company’s gross margin improved significantly to 51%, up from 32% in the preceding quarter, reflecting enhanced cost efficiency and a favorable business mix.
Operating efficiency was further evident as SG&A declined to 12% of revenue, benefiting from operating leverage, compared to 13% a year ago and 16% in the previous quarter.
Share of profit climbed to THB 757 million, an increase of 84% year-on-year and 135% quarter-on-quarter, buoyed by PJM capacity revenue and robust performance from hydro assets in Laos. However, BCPG recorded a foreign exchange loss of THB 85 million during the quarter.
