CLSA Securities wrote in its analysis that, with Thailand’s general election on the horizon, anticipated as early as February 2026, political developments are drawing heightened investor attention. There is a possibility that Prime Minister Anutin may dissolve the House in December 2025 if the opposition Pheu Thai party pursues a no-confidence motion in a bid to oust the minority government.
By law, such a development would trigger a general election within 60 days. Recent polling shows the People’s Party taking a significant lead in party votes, translating into 25-29 out of 100 party-list Member of Parliament seats, although a sizable portion of voters remain undecided for the prime minister’s post.
Notably, CLSA expects election campaigns to drive a boost in domestic consumption and infrastructure spending, themes likely to dominate policy agendas.
The People’s Party is positioning itself on democratic reforms and anti-authoritarianism, appealing to voters favoring change, but may face coalition-building challenges in Thailand’s fragmented political landscape. Meanwhile, the Bhumjaithai Party (BJT), led by Anutin, is focusing on established local networks and traditional political strengths.
Pending legal action against 25 People’s Party MPs on charges related to proposed lese majeste law amendments could further test the party’s prospects as a potential government leader.
On the market front, CLSA highlights that the SET Index historically rises 2.2-3.5% in the three months before general elections, benefiting especially commerce and media sectors, though last year’s election was an exception with a -6.2% drop and bank sector outperformance.
CLSA’s investment strategy concentrates on companies poised for strong 4Q25 earnings and those leveraged to increased election-related spending. Top stock picks are CPN and CPALL for their attractive valuations, robust earnings, and potential to gain from campaign activity.
Moreover, the analyst also favors OSP and HMPRO for dividend yield, while DOHOME, TASCO, and SCGD could benefit from post-flood renovation demand, historically strong in the first quarter.
