Kiatnakin Phatra Securities (KKPS) has upgraded the rating of Bangkok Dusit Medical Services (SET: BDMS) to ‘Buy’ and raised its target price to THB 26 per share. The upgrade follows a 2% increase in profit forecasts for 2025-2027, reflecting a strong EBITDA margin in 3Q25.
BDMS is now trading at a notably low valuation of 16 times expected 2026 earnings, compared to the regional peer average of 28 times, with KKPS suggesting recent weak earnings growth is temporary and not due to structural issues.
Shares of BDMS have declined 24% year-to-date, underperforming the SET by 14%. KKPS believes current concerns are already reflected in the share price. Three main issues were reviewed:
- Thai patient revenue growth slowed to 1% year-on-year in 3Q25, but this is attributed to fewer influenza cases rather than broader economic challenges. Meanwhile, the sustained growth in higher-intensity medical cases and a forecast of 4% Thai patient revenue growth for 2025-26—about twice Thailand’s GDP—position BDMS as a resilient defensive stock.
- For international patients, revenue growth was limited by a sharp fall in Cambodian patients due to political tensions. However, excluding the patient group, international revenue grew 10-11% in 3Q25 and October, driven by performance at Bangkok Hospital headquarters.
- The market’s concern about BDMS’ Silver Wellness senior-living project is mitigated by the plan to partner with professional operators, including Capella, for the residential segment and the project’s strategic Lang Suan location.
KKPS noted that in 3Q25, BDMS reported 2% year-on-year growth in core profit, exceeding market expectations due to robust margin performance. With revenue growth improving to 7% in October (8% Thai, 3% international), the brokerage firm expects 4Q25 core profit to expand 2-4% year-on-year and reach a record quarterly high.
Additionally, net profit forecasts are THB 16.62 billion for 2025, THB 18.21 billion for 2026, and THB 19.98 billion for 2027.
