Kiatnakin Phatra Securities (KKPS) has expressed its view on the 2026 outlook for Thailand’s industrial estate sector, warning of a challenging year ahead amid growing demand uncertainty and increasing supply.
The analyst rates WHA Corporation Public Company Limited (SET: WHA) as ‘Neutral’ with a target price of THB 3.60 per share, and AMATA Corporation Public Company Limited (SET: AMATA) as ‘Underperform’ with a target price of THB 14 per share.
The sector faces significant headwinds as the trajectory for new industrial land sales remains unclear, constrained by persistent U.S. tariff risks and unpredictable foreign direct investment (FDI) inflows.
While KKPS maintains its core profit decline forecasts for 2026, projecting a 13% drop for WHA and a 19% decrease for AMATA, it notes that WHA’s diversified land sales portfolio and stable recurring income offer resilience, justifying its ‘Neutral’ rating. In contrast, AMATA’s lower return on equity (ROE) and price-to-book (P/B) ratios underpin the ‘Underperform’ view.
Trough P/B valuations are seen as providing some stability, with WHA historically trading at a 1.0x trough P/B versus 0.6x for AMATA. KKPS expects WHA to post a 2026 ROE of 12%, higher than AMATA’s forecasted 10%, reflecting WHA’s stronger profitability profile.
Demand-side risks are intensifying for 2026 amid concerns over U.S. reciprocal tariffs, possible transshipment risks, and heightened competition from regional players, especially Vietnam. Manufacturing FDI into Thailand has weakened for four consecutive quarters and fell 10% year-on-year in the first nine months of 2025, even as overall FDI rose 44%, largely fueled by a data center project boom.
Economists from Bank of America (BofA) warn that with data centers now representing nearly all incremental growth, any cooling in this segment could result in overall FDI declines for 2026.
On the supply side, new industrial estate projects began ramping up in mid-2025, marking a reversal after a prolonged period of shrinking supply. As of June 2025, nationwide land available for sale rose by 8% year-on-year, while supply in the Eastern Economic Corridor (EEC) stabilized after ten quarters of declines.
This two-year high in supply is expected to further stiffen competition, with WHA’s market share dropping year-on-year to 36% in the first half of 2025, and AMATA experiencing a reduction to 26%.
Amid these pressures, pricing power is expected to soften. KKPS forecasts gross margins from land sales to normalize at 50% for WHA and 40% for AMATA in 2026, reflecting rising land costs and new supply flows. Anticipated price increases for 2026 are projected at mid- to high single digits, down from WHA’s 18% and AMATA’s 8% hikes in 2025.
Both companies expanded the amount of land available for sale by the end of 3Q25—WHA to 10,190 rai (+11% year-on-year, +14% quarter-on-quarter) and AMATA to 6,469 rai (+36% year-on-year, +30% quarter-on-quarter).
