Tisco Securities’ latest monthly report on Thailand’s commerce sector highlights a modest improvement in November’s same-store sales growth (SSSG) across both retail and home improvement sectors, though short-term headwinds persist as the market moves into December.
November SSSG
SSSG across the retail sector fell by 0.9% in November, marginally better than October’s 1% drop. The positive impact of the government’s stimulus campaign only took effect at the end of October, mainly benefitting CPAXT’s wholesale operations, as vendors stocked up in anticipation. However, all companies continued to feel the effects of heavy rainfall, though the impact from adverse weather is expected to ease in December, potentially paving the way for positive momentum into the seasonally strong fourth quarter of 2025.
Border Conflict Adds Uncertainty
A new concern emerged in the form of the Thai-Cambodian border conflict. If tensions are not resolved quickly, December’s SSSG could see further pressure, particularly for BJC, which has 1.9% of its stores near the conflict area. Temporary closures across various retail and home improvement chains, though only around 1% of their total stores, have already been reported.
Home Improvement
Performance in the home improvement segment was mixed. Most players improved month-on-month, but DOHOME posted deterioration. Floods in southern Thailand were largely contained, with disruptions lasting less than a week and minimal impact on core operations.
Looking ahead, the Cambodian border tensions pose risks, though immediate revenue impact remains low (less than 1%). Those with higher border exposure, however, are facing operational challenges.
Company Performance Snapshots
- CPALL (TP 73 Baht): Expected to report slightly negative SSSG, challenged by last year’s high base effect, soft consumer sentiment, and flood and border-related disruptions, though only 10-20 affected stores are temporarily closed in the conflict zone.
- CPAXT (TP 32 Baht): Shows improved momentum, especially in wholesale, thanks to stimulus-driven vendor restocking. However, overall SSSG remains negative, with temporary closures in border provinces.
- BJC (TP 25 Baht): November SSSG is expected at -2.8%, better than October, aided by improved dry food performance despite ongoing store renovations and external disruptions.
- MRDIYT (TP 10 Baht): Continues to outperform peers, with an estimated +4% SSSG in November, though border disruptions have led to temporary closure of 10 out of 63 stores.
- CRC (TP 40 Baht): Demonstrated the strongest recovery among large-format players (-0.5% SSSG), with limited direct risk from border tensions due to broad geographic diversification.
- GLOBAL & DOHOME (TP 9 and 10 Baht): Both saw weakened November momentum. Global reported -3% SSSG, while DOHOME lagged further at -9.5%, though exposure to conflict zones remains low.
- HMPRO (TP 11 Baht): Showed MoM recovery in November (-7%), with branch closures in affected areas but ongoing monitoring for further risk.
Top Picks and Sector Outlook Tisco Securities maintains a preference for the retail sector relative to home improvement, expecting both segments to benefit from modest economic recovery, ongoing government stimulus, rebounding tourism, and improving consumer confidence in 2026. CPALL remains the top Buy for its resilient SSSG and margin outlook. In home improvement, despite demand challenges and ongoing network expansion that could pressure short-term profitability, DOHOME and HMPRO are favored for their long-term strategic positioning.
