Fed Rate Cut and Liquidity Boost Set Stage for SET Index Gains

Mr. Takit Chardcherdsak, Assistant Director of Research Division at Krungsri Securities (KSS), stated in the “Kaohoon” program on December 11, 2025, that the U.S. Federal Reserve’s interest rate cut, along with its plan to begin quantitative easing by purchasing $40 billion of short-term Treasury bills per month, is expected to generate positive sentiment that lifts the Stock Exchange of Thailand (SET) Index and injected liquidity, which weaken the U.S. dollar and strengthening Asian currencies, including the Thai baht.

Mr. Takit recommended Muangthai Capital PCL (SET: MTC) and Srisawad Corporation PCL (SET: SAWAD), noting that both will benefit from rate cuts. He added that MTC is likely to reach new highs in the fourth quarter and into next year, while SAWAD is expected to enter the SET50 Index in 2026. Regarding the uptick of capital inflow, this will further strengthen Thai baht and benefit power plant stocks such as Gulf Development PCL (SET: GULF). Mr. Takit also noted that the currency’s appreciation will benefit the import sector, but will generate negative sentiment for the export sector.

As for the ongoing tensions between Thailand and Cambodia, Mr. Takit noted that while the dispute has created some negative sentiment toward companies with operations in Cambodia, the impact is expected to be limited. The issue has persisted for some time, and much of the negative sentiment is likely to be reflected on the market index. Moreover, listed companies, like Carabao Group PCL (SET: CBG), already reduced their revenue exposure to Cambodia, further minimizing potential downside.

Mr. Takit also recommended the tourism sector for its high season. The tourist volume has been increasing significantly, especially the Chinese tourists. Furthermore, the sector is also benefiting from the news that the government is planning to create a Disneyland-style theme park. He recommended Airports of Thailand PCL (SET: AOT), the Erawan Group PCL (SET: ERW), and Central Plaza Hotel PCL (SET: CENTEL).