JPMorgan forecasts that 2026 will mark a turning point for ASEAN stock markets, projecting a clear recovery in both earnings and valuations across the region. However, the investment bank remains cautious on Thailand, citing ongoing economic headwinds that set the country apart from regional peers such as Singapore and Vietnam, which are expected to post stronger growth.
JPMorgan anticipates that Thailand’s economy will continue to display weakness in 2026, projecting GDP growth of just 1.3%. This tepid outlook is attributed to risks posed by U.S. tariff policies and persistent domestic debt issues.
The analyst further expects that earnings growth for Thai listed companies will reach only 4%—the lowest forecasted rate in ASEAN. Additionally, as local funds have already heavily invested in Thai equities, this leaves limited runway for fresh capital inflows, while foreign investors continue to maintain net selling positions.
Political uncertainty also poses a significant obstacle, with institutional investors showing caution as Thailand approaches its next general election in 2026. JPMorgan suggests that investor confidence may not recover until after the election cycle concludes.
Despite these challenges, JPMorgan sees pockets of relative strength among banking stocks, citing their clarity on dividend payouts. The telecommunications sector is also poised for improved profits, while healthcare and consumer goods companies benefit from steady revenue streams.
Elsewhere in the region, the brokerage holds a highly positive view on Singapore and Vietnam equities, supported by policy clarity in both markets. In the Philippines, the analyst highlights an attractive risk-reward balance. As for Malaysia and Indonesia, JPMorgan has assigned a ‘Neutral’ outlook for both markets.
