Innovest X Securities (INVX) recommended five speculative stocks under the January Effect theme, selected from the SETHD and sSET indices. According to statistics over the past five years (2021-2025), these stocks have a high probability of positive returns during the first one or two weeks of January and generally outperform large-cap stocks and the overall market.
INVX primarily focuses on selecting stocks from the SETHD Index, using the same criteria as the “High-Quality Dividend Stocks for Short- and Long-Term Investment” strategy published on November 28, 2025. The chosen stocks are Krung Thai Bank PCL (SET: KTB), Bangkok Bank PCL (SET: BBL), AP (Thailand) PCL (SET: AP), Ratchthani Leasing PCL (SET: THANI), and Kasikornbank PCL (SET: KBANK).
Historical data on these five stocks shows at least an 80% chance of positive returns during the first week of January, with an average expected return of about 2.9%, outperforming the Stock Exchange of Thailand (SET) Index, which is expected to yield about 1.3% with only a 60% chance of positive returns.
The January Effect is a statistical phenomenon where stock prices tend to rise in January, supported by factors such as buybacks of stocks sold at year-end for portfolio management or window dressing, the influx of new funds from bonuses, savings, and tax-deductible funds at the beginning of the year, as well as investment psychology factors associated with the start of a new year.
In the Thai stock market, the January Effect is most evident in the SETHD and sSET indices. Five-year statistics indicate both indices offer high probabilities of positive returns and outperform the SET50 and SET100 large-cap indices, as well as the overall SET Index, particularly during the first one or two weeks of January.
INVX analysts further noted that stocks selected under the January Effect theme tend to have high dividend yields, which help reduce volatility and limit downside risk. Moreover, there are another 24 stocks within the SETHD and sSET indices that, according to historical data, also exhibit the January Effect.
For long-term investors (6-12 months), INVX recommends investing in the SETHD index, which has consistently outperformed the market over the past five years. The performance gap between SETHD and the overall market is expected to widen, with the SETHD Index posting a 12.8% higher return than the market in 2025.
Krungsri Securities (KSS) also maintains a positive outlook for the commercial banking sector as a Value Play, citing strong capital management and consistent dividend policies. They expect dividend yields to be in the range of 6-9% per year, with potential for further increases from 2025 to 2026.
The securities company studied seven banks: KBANK, KTB, BBL, SCB X PCL (SET: SCB), TMBThanachart Bank PCL (SET: TTB), Kiatnakin Phatra Bank PCL (SET: KKP), and Tisco Financial Group PCL (SET: TISCO).
For the outlook in the fourth quarter of 2025, the combined net profit of these seven banks under Krungsri’s coverage is expected at THB 52.5 billion, up 2% year-on-year (YoY), mainly supported by a 30% YoY increase in non-interest income (Non-NII) from gains on financial investments (FVTPL and Investment) and fee income.
Operating expenses (OPEX) is expected to decrease 4% YoY due to lower losses on repossessed assets and other expenses, while expected credit loss expenses (ECL) should drop 3% YoY as banks continue to actively manage asset quality throughout 2024.
Total loans for the sector edges up 0.5% quarter-on-quarter (QoQ) but still down 2.6% year-to-date (YTD). Asset quality remained stable, with the gross non-performing loan ratio (Gross NPL Ratio) at 3.72%, similar to 3Q25 at 3.75%.
Krungsri Securities noted that “asset quality risk, both in terms of non-performing loans (NPL) and credit cost, remains manageable for banks. The market has largely priced in the downward interest rate trend, which appears to be nearing its end. Therefore, the banking sector remains suitable for investors seeking fundamentally strong stocks with an emphasis on dividend cash flow.”
