Today (December 30, 2025) marks the final day for taxpayers to utilize their 2025 annual tax deduction rights by investing in mutual funds, such as the Thai ESG Fund (TESG) and the Retirement Mutual Fund (RMF).
Mrs. Chavinda Hanratanakool, Chief Executive Officer of Krung Thai Asset Management (KTAM) and the President of the Association of Investment Management Companies (AIMC), stated that the Stock Exchange of Thailand (SET) Index in 2025 will hover around 1,250 points, with slight fluctuations, due to global market volatility and Thailand’s sluggish economic recovery.
However, in December 2025—which is typically the last month for additional fund inflows—there has been an increase in investments in TESG, as investors use these vehicles for end-of-year tax benefits. She acknowledged that TESG inflows this year have risen compared to previous years.
Mr. Pongpat Siripipat, Investment Strategist at InnovestX Securities (INVX), stated that with just one trading day left in 2025, the Thai stock market still offers opportunities for stock accumulation for the next year, especially for investors with medium- to-long-term goals.
Five-year historical statistics indicate that the Thai stock index tends to yield positive returns, averaging about 1.30% in the first week of the new year, reflecting a potential rebound after year-end. However, trading during the last week of the year is often volatile with short-term fluctuations due to portfolio rotations and year-end risk reduction, which can cause the index to fluctuate.
Investors seeking short-term speculation are advised to wait to open buy positions during market weakness, aiming to capture short-term rebounds and gradually realize profits during the first week of 2026.
Asia Plus Securities indicated that the MSCI ACWI Index, which reflects the global stock market, has delivered a remarkable 68.5% three-year return (2023–2025)—a very high level historically.
Past statistics show that when global markets yield a cumulative three-year return in the 60–70% range, the following year’s average return tends to be negative, around -4.7%. This indicates a heightened risk of a global market correction moving forward, and investors should exercise caution.
Conversely, the Thai stock index registered a -24.5% return over the same three-year period, significantly below historical averages. Statistical data shows that when the Thai stock market posts a three-year cumulative loss between 20–30%, the following year’s average return is positive, at approximately 47%. This points to a positive signal, suggesting potential recovery of the Thai stock market in the coming period.
Concerning valuation, the current Thai stock market is seen as attractive for gradual accumulation. In 2025, 461 out of the 703 listed companies posted a price-to-book value (P/BV) ratio below 1. Additionally, the average P/BV ratio for the market has steadily declined from 2.7 in 2015 to just 1.1 in 2025, reflecting a significant reduction in Thai stock valuations compared to historical levels.
Furthermore, 273 companies, or 39% of all listed firms, reported a dividend yield higher than 5% in 2025, making this a crucial feature of the Thai stock market during this period of stable interest rates.
Asia Plus Securities recommends investors take this opportunity to gradually accumulate fundamentally sound stocks with prominent dividends for medium-to-long-term returns, focusing specifically on stocks with P/BV below 1 and a dividend yield above 5%, across five main sectors: Banking, Commerce, Energy, Media, and Real Estate.
