According to the latest analysis from CGS International Securities (Thailand) (CGSI), the brokerage firm highlights significant political uncertainty ahead of the general election scheduled for Sunday, 8 February 2026.
Although the People’s Party continues to lead in polls, its popularity has waned, as per a Nida Poll from mid-December 2025. The number of undecided voters has also increased, which CGSI attributes to the People’s Party’s support of Bhumjaithai’s (BJT) leader Anutin Charnvirakul as the prime minister in September 2025 and their stance on the Thailand-Cambodia border conflict—factors that may have eroded its support base.
While polls project the People’s Party will secure the most seats, they may lack enough to form a government independently. BJT, the second-largest party in the poll, has indicated reluctance to join any coalition with parties interested in amending the lese majeste law, implicitly excluding the People’s Party.
As a result, CGSI expects BJT to join with Pheu Thai and Kla Tham to form the next government, with the Democrat Party likely sidelined due to their unwillingness to cooperate with Kla Tham. Political uncertainty is expected to linger until the new government takes office, which may not occur until mid-April 2026.
Given these uncertainties, CGSI suggests a defensive approach for investors in the first quarter of 2026. The analyst anticipates continued volatility and possible foreign selling pressure on the SET Index.
Sector-wise, CGSI remains ‘Overweight’ on telecom, healthcare, consumer, and banks, while ‘Underweight’ on energy, petrochemical, and property, with the top stock picks including ADVANC, BCPG, BDMS, CPN, MOSHI, MTC, PR9, SCB, and TRUE.
Despite near-term headwinds, the brokerage firm reiterates its year-end 2026 SET Index target of 1,400 points and notes that the index has already corrected 10% in 2025 and 25% from end-2022, making valuations more attractive at around 14x FY2026 P/E.
Stripping out Delta Electronics (DELTA), the valuation drops further to 12.6x, adding to market appeal.
Following these, CGSI cites the potential of a new government led by BJT and Pheu Thai, along with a rebound in tourism, as possible catalysts for the market. However, renewed Thailand-Cambodia tensions or an election delay could negatively impact sentiment.
