Kasikorn Securities stated that the Bank of Thailand (BOT), together with the Ministry of Finance and financial institutions, officially launched the “Pid Nee Wai, Pai Tor Dai” program on January 5, 2026. This initiative aims to assist retail debtors with non-performing loans (NPLs) not exceeding THB 100,000 per person.
In its initial phase, the project will focus on commercial bank and financial business group debtors. Sukhumvit Asset Management Company Limited (SAM) will purchase unsecured NPLs to restructure the debt with relaxed conditions, such as principal reduction, waiver of interest and fees, enabling debtors to either clear the debt immediately or pay in installments over no more than three years without interest, along with credit record improvement.
The program provided a positive factor for Bangkok Commercial Asset Management Public Company Limited (SET: BAM) and points toward improving asset quality in the financial sector.
Meanwhile, KGI Securities (Thailand) recommends “Buy” for BAM with a target price of THB 9.70. KGI sees BAM shifting to new strategies to boost cash flow from debt collection and income by establishing joint venture asset management companies (JV AMC) with various banks to drive asset growth through an asset-light model, recognizing profit shares, reducing D/E ratio, and increasing dividend payouts.
Additionally, the company has partnered with property developers to develop non-performing assets (NPA) for sale at higher margins. These strategies differ from BAM’s previous business model, and the company is considering new businesses, notably leasing condominiums acquired at low cost, which will generate rental income as an additional revenue stream in the future.
Despite higher income from large asset sales this year, BAM made provisions for assets held for over fifteen years, recording this expense as an Expected Credit Loss (ECL) of approximately THB 500 million in 2025.
Therefore, a reduction in this expense will support profit growth in 2026, while accelerated growth from profit sharing in JV AMC becomes clear. Profits are expected to increase from THB 130 million in 2025 to THB 260 million in 2026 as GSB assets are contributed to Ari AMC, enlarging JV AMC’s asset size and potentially doubling revenue from this source in 2026.
Furthermore, the 2026 target price has been raised to THB 9.70 as BAM shifts its strategy to prioritize rapid cash collections over margin, aiming for annual cash collection growth of 3-5%. This plan appears increasingly solid, with cash collection expected to jump to THB 17.5 billion in 2025.
Given this high base, the cash collection estimate for next year is maintained at THB 16 billion, while ECL expenses are expected to decline in 2026. Additionally, asset-light growth via JV AMC will lower the D/E ratio and allow for increased dividend payments.
TISCO Securities values BAM at THB 8, reflecting the outlook for improved dividends. The brokerage has increased its 2026 cash receipts forecast due to the revised outlook, as well as raising the 2026-2027 profit estimates by 3-5%.
The forecast for 2026 cash receipts has been increased to THB 17.1 billion, up from THB 15.4 billion, a 4% decrease from 2025 due to the high base from significant NPL sales this year.
BAM management has demonstrated a commitment to maintaining dividend per share levels. Thus, the securities firm anticipated that BAM will be able to sustain its dividend per share despite profit fluctuations, with a forecast dividend of THB 0.5 per share for 2026, and remain at that level for the next two years.
