CGS International Securities (Thailand) stated that the economic outlook, which continues to show signs of weakening combined with rising geopolitical risks, may prompt many Thai listed companies to proceed more cautiously with business expansion. As a result, companies with strong profits are likely to hold off their operating cash flow.
Such cash reserves should be sufficient to support future investment plans, as many companies still have low debt-to-equity ratios. In the case of the banking sector, their capital adequacy ratio (CAR) remains high, opening opportunities for these companies to manage their surplus funds to deliver returns to shareholders.
However, the overall share prices may not perform strongly as the macroeconomic conditions continue to soften, resulting in some listed companies, particularly those with low dividend payout ratios, possibly considering increasing their dividend payouts or undertaking more share buyback programs. Thailand’s GDP growth rate for 2026 is projected to be 1.9%, down from 2.0% in 2025.
According to a survey conducted by the research department, excluding companies with a “Sell” recommendation, there are 14 listed companies identified as active capital management candidates: BBL, BCH, BH, CKP, CPN, HANA, KCE, KTB, MEGA, MOSHI, PR9, PTTEP, SAWAD, and SISB.
CGSI assesses that companies are more likely to increase their dividend payouts than undertake share buybacks because the share buyback program requires repurchased shares to be re-sold on the market within three years. Under the new regulations, effective October 2025, companies may request to extend the period for another two years, except in cases where the repurchased shares are canceled.
Nonetheless, some companies that achieved very strong profits in 2025 could be unsure whether they can maintain a high dividend payout ratio consistently, which may prompt them to pay out special dividends instead.
For the banking, energy, retail, real estate, and industrial sectors, the dividend payout ratio to profit in 2025 ranged between 35–139%, while several companies had negative net gearing, reflecting a robust cash position.
In terms of dividend yield in 2025, shares with high yields included KCE and PTTEP at around 6.6%, KTB at approximately 6.3%, and BBL close to 5.9%. SAWAD and CKP provided yields of about 5.0% and 4.2% respectively.
In terms of recommendations, CGSI favors most stocks such as BCH, CKP, CPN, KTB, MEGA, MOSHI, PR9, PTTEP, and SISB. Some stocks are categorized as “Hold” including BBL, BH, HANA, KCE, and SAWAD, reflecting strong fundamentals and reasonable valuations.
