The share price of CK Power rose 5.5% to THB 2.68 per share as of 11:08 local time in Bangkok (GMT-7) on Tuesday after the company announced its financial performance that surpassed analyst expectations. The price rose as much as 8.6% during the session.
CGS International Securities (Thailand) (CGS) stated that CK Power Public Company Limited (SET: CKP) delivered a robust performance in 4Q25, posting a net profit of THB 831 million, up 54% year-on-year but down 35% quarter-on-quarter. This result surpassed Bloomberg consensus by 23% and internal forecasts by 17%, primarily due to stronger-than-anticipated share of profit from the Xayaburi hydroelectric plant (XPCL) and additional FX gains from Luang Prabang Power (LPCL).
Despite a 10% year-on-year and 19% quarter-on-quarter drop in total revenue—mainly from lower electricity sales at Bangpa-In Cogeneration (BIC) due to weaker demand and lower fuel tariffs—CKP benefited from increased revenue at its Nam Ngum 2 hydroelectric plant (NN2), which saw improved reservoir levels. However, gross margin narrowed to 19.4% from 31.5% in the same period last year, as higher operations and maintenance costs, wheeling charges, and royalty fees took their toll.
On the cost side, SG&A expenses as a percentage of sales improved to 4.7%, while finance costs rose by 5% year-on-year due to bond issuances in June 2025. The company declared a dividend payment of THB 0.088 per share for FY25 (XD date: 7 May).
Looking ahead, CGSI anticipates a solid 1Q26F contribution from strong NN2 inflows and the absence of maintenance shutdowns. While BIC revenue is expected to fall year-on-year following a lower fuel tariff rate, it may improve on a quarter-on-quarter basis as operational disruptions at client facilities subside. The share of profit may soften slightly from 4Q25, given scheduled turbine overhauls at XPCL.
Management also commented on LPCL’s construction progress, now 60% complete, with THB 4.1 billion in investment planned for FY26F, supported by anticipated cash flow. The risk of potential disruption from El Niño is mitigated by CKP’s ability to declare a “Drought Year” to avoid penalty charges under its power purchase agreements if electricity supply falls below the contract minimum.
CGS International Securities reiterates its “Add” recommendation for CKP, maintaining a DCF-based target price of THB 3.70. Drivers include attractive valuation, a strong 42% EBITDA margin, and a net debt-to-equity ratio of 0.6x. Key risks remain CKP’s exposure to hydroelectric power and increasing competition. Catalysts to watch include persistently high water levels through 2Q26F and earlier commercial operation of new projects.
