Maybank Securities (Thailand) has released its “Year Ahead 2026” outlook for Thailand’s tech-service sector, maintaining a NEUTRAL stance amid a changing investment landscape.
According to Maybank, the sector faces a mix of supportive and challenging factors for the coming fiscal year. A notable recovery in private-sector investment is anticipated, fueled by the resolution of trade-war uncertainties and increased demand for artificial intelligence (AI) solutions. In contrast, government projects are expected to decline, while economic growth is forecasted to remain subdued at 1.7% GDP.
The brokerage house projects the sector’s core profit growth will ease from 12% in FY25E to just 1% in FY26E. However, removing SKY (which is heavily reliant on government contracts) from the calculation, sector core profit growth should accelerate from 2% in FY25E to 12% in FY26E. The underlying drivers include the elimination of trade-war ambiguities—especially after a period of stalled investments in April-August 2025 as companies awaited tariff updates—and stronger demand for AI-driven workflow automation and pattern analysis.
Maybank expects government-related IT capital expenditure to stall in the first half of 2026, citing the limitations faced by the caretaker administration, which is unable to commit to substantial new projects without Parliamentary approval following the House dissolution.
This delay is likely to impact companies such as SKY, which receives over 90% of its revenue from government projects. As a result, the securities firm has revised down SKY’s core profit forecasts for FY26/27E by 23%/16%. Other companies with substantial government exposure include BE8 (20%) and BBIK (approximately 10%).
In contrast, HUMAN and NETBAY are insulated as they have no dependency on public-sector contracts. Maybank’s house view assumes a national election in February 2026 followed by new government formation in May 2026, suggesting a potential rebound in government capex in the latter half of the year.
HUMAN (Buy recommendation with a target price of THB 10.30) has been named a Top Pick due to its resilient earnings outlook—an 11% FY25–27E core profit CAGR, a strong mix of recurring revenue (over 70% of FY25E revenue), complete insulation from government project delays, an attractive FY26E dividend yield of 7.6%, and valuations that are more than 50% below international peers.
BBIK (Buy recommendation with a target price of THB 28.2) is also highlighted, thanks to an expected acceleration in core profit growth from 10% in FY25E to 14% in FY26E, boasting the lowest price-to-earning ratio in the industry at 8.2x in FY25E, and potential further upside from mergers, acquisitions, and joint ventures.
Maybank expects both HUMAN and BBIK to achieve record-high quarterly core profits in the fourth quarter of 2025.
