Kiatnakin Phatra Securities (KKPS) hosted a three-day Property Day conference, inviting key industry players, including the Thai Condo Association and six major companies, to share insights with local funds. The consensus among participants points to a slow and uneven recovery for Thailand’s property sector in 2026.
KKPS maintains a positive outlook on Supalai (SPALI) and Sansiri (SIRI), citing potential presales growth and margin improvement, respectively. Conversely, Amata Corporation (AMATA) is viewed unfavorably due to high execution risks.
SPALI (Buy): Expected to gain presales market share in 2026, SPALI’s strengths include the healthiest balance sheet among top developers, low financing costs, and a diversified product and geographical portfolio. Management anticipates growth in condo presales and an improved gross profit margin to drive performance.
SIRI (Buy): With the second-largest presales projection for 2025 (Bt41.7bn; evenly split between landed property and condos), SIRI adopts a conservative 2026 outlook, targeting Bt41bn in presales (down 2%) and an improved gross profit margin, particularly from the condo segment.
AP (Neutral): Leading the sector in presales at Bt46bn for 2025, AP’s growth is expected to remain flat. The company’s focus on townhouse development provides resilience, and its expansion in upcountry and condo projects is set to drive growth in 2026.
SC and ORI (Not covered): SC is recognized for its high-end market position but is expected to pursue a cautious expansion in 2026 to manage its high net gearing ratio (1.7x at 3Q25). ORI will concentrate on cash flow management via conservative project launches and asset sales.
AMATA (Underperform): Despite an ambitious land presales target of 2,800 rai in 2026 across Thailand, Vietnam, and Laos, AMATA faces low visibility in new land sales beyond ongoing negotiations. Although a margin recovery is anticipated from a low base and higher prices in 2025, execution risks persist.
KKPS continues to recommend selectivity in Thailand’s property sector, with SPALI and SIRI remaining preferred picks due to their balance sheet strengths and margin potential.
