Kiatnakin Phatra Securities (KKPS) wrote in its analysis that Praram 9 Hospital Public Company Limited (SET: PR9) is poised for a robust financial performance in the fourth quarter of 2025, projecting a 9% year-on-year (YoY) increase in core profit to a record high of THB 225 million. The anticipated surge is underpinned by double-digit revenue growth and a significant rise in international patient inflows, particularly from the Middle East and Myanmar.
According to the analysis, PR9’s total revenue is expected to jump 11% YoY, primarily driven by a 35-40% YoY increase in international patient revenue. The hospital’s strategic focus on attracting medical tourists, especially from the Middle East, has paid dividends, with dedicated wards for these patients now fully booked. Myanmar patient revenue is also contributing to this international growth momentum.
Meanwhile, domestic business remains stable, as Thai patient revenue is projected to grow 3-5% YoY. This moderate uptick is attributed to higher revenue intensity and increased demand for health check-up services. Although PR9 may face higher accrued expenses linked to gold reward programs for long-serving staff—reflecting recent gold price surges—the impact on profitability should be offset by declining marketing expenses. The hospital’s EBITDA margin is thus forecast to improve to 24% in 4Q25, up from 23% in the same period last year.
Looking forward to 2026, KKPS maintains an optimistic outlook. Patient volumes from the Middle East are expected to remain strong in the first quarter, with 2026 revenue forecast to rise a further 10% YoY. While some insurers are set to phase out full-coverage health policies in favor of co-pay products beginning March 2026, the brokerage notes that PR9 has already taken steps to be included in several major insurer networks, such as AIA, Krungthai AXA, and Muang Thai Life Assurance. For now, patients utilizing insurance at in-network hospitals will not be required to co-pay.
Shares of PR9 have declined by 25% over the past three months, largely due to worries about slower domestic demand and upcoming changes in insurance policies. However, KKPS views the price drop as a compelling buying opportunity. Trading at just 15 times estimated 2026 price-to-earnings (P/E) ratio and supported by double-digit international revenue growth, the brokerage reiterates its “Buy” rating for PR9, with a price objective of THB 31.00. The firm projects Middle East patient revenue to expand by an additional 20-30% in 2026, continuing to drive PR9’s earnings momentum.
