Copper prices that rallied in late 2025 are expected to ease during 2026 even as projections point to a growing supply shortfall by 2040. Analysts predict that rising global demand, especially in Asia and from expanding data centers, will eventually outpace supply, but current market dynamics are moving in the opposite direction.
Global copper demand is forecast to climb to 42 million tonnes by 2040, increasing sharply from 28 million tonnes in 2025, according to estimates from S&P Global.
Most of this surge is likely to come from Asia, which is set to account for about 60% of total demand growth, fueled by higher adoption of electric vehicles and significant upgrades to power infrastructure. Simultaneously, copper consumption from AI data centers is also anticipated to rise, with usage projected to more than double, reaching 2.5 million tonnes by 2040.
However, copper supply is predicted to peak at nearly 34 million tonnes in 2030 before declining to approximately 32 million tonnes by 2040, suggesting a possible deficit of 10 million tonnes by 2040—about one-third of today’s total global demand.
In the short term, market sentiment has diverged from long-term trends. Goldman Sachs Research earlier this year maintains that the recent price rally, which began at the end of 2025, is likely to lose momentum through 2026. The firm attributes this anticipated adjustment to factors such as ongoing stockpiling in the US ahead of possible import tariffs, which has created the impression of a tight market outside the country. A mid-year policy decision on refined copper tariffs from the US government is expected to be pivotal for prices later this year.
Goldman Sachs Research sees copper prices remaining firm at $13,000 per tonne during the first quarter of 2026 before gradually retreating to $11,000 per tonne by the year’s end. Despite the recent rally, the market recorded a significant surplus of 600,000 tonnes in 2025, the highest in more than a decade, and inventories outside the US are continuing to rise.
Persistent high prices are likely to slow demand growth while also encouraging additional supply from scrap, supporting the view of a larger surplus in 2026. Goldman Sachs has raised its projected global oversupply for this year to 300,000 tonnes, up from an earlier estimate of 160,000 tonnes. Recent demand from China for refined copper has also slowed notably, with this year’s decrease noted as steeper than the so-called “buyers’ strike” in 2024. In addition, Goldman Sachs trimmed its 2026 forecast for US copper stockpiling to 600,000 tonnes, reflecting less favorable conditions for importers.
According to analysts, copper’s fair value currently stands near $11,500 per tonne, which aligns closely with their price outlook of $11,200 per tonne for the fourth quarter of 2026.
The market’s direction for the remainder of the year is expected to hinge on the US administration’s forthcoming decision on refined copper tariffs and subsequent adjustments to global supply and demand dynamics.
