According to DAOL Securities (Thailand), Thailand’s Prime Minister Anutin Charnvirakul confirmed that there have been no detected cases of Nipah virus infection in the country. Meanwhile, the PM called for the COVID-19 surveillance model to be implemented.
The Ministry of Public Health is conducting stringent inspections and preparing three main hospitals and medical personnel nationwide to respond. Screening checkpoints have been set up at three airports—Suvarnabhumi, Don Mueang, and Phuket—to screen flights from India, with Phuket intensifying checks on 6 airlines, 13 flights per day.
Furthermore, the Department of National Parks reiterated its ban on killing and butchering bats, out of concern about disease transmission.
DAOL views the development as negative for the tourism sector, should an outbreak occur in Thailand. However, the impact is expected to remain limited, as the present situation is confined to India, while there has been no international transmission.
Notably, the Nipah virus first appeared in Malaysia in 1998, with around 265 cases and 105 fatalities. The outbreak ended in 1999 and has recurred sporadically, with a very high fatality rate of about 40-75%.
The analyst stated that the spread of the virus would be more difficult than COVID-19, due to the need for contact or close exposure to the body fluids of infected persons. In comparison, COVID-19 spreads more easily via airborne particles and droplets, but has a much lower average fatality rate of only 1%.
In 2025, Indian tourists totaled 2.49 million, accounting for 7.5% of all visitors to Thailand. DAOL expects that stocks most affected by a potential drop in Indian tourist arrivals, ordered by revenue exposure, are The Erawan Group (ERW), Central Plaza Hotel (CENTEL), Minor International (MINT), and S Hotels and Resorts (SHR).
ERW generates 7% of its revenue from Indian tourists, while CENTEL derives 5%. Meanwhile, Asia Aviation (AAV) earns approximately 11% of its revenue from Indian flights during the first nine months of 2025.
DAOL maintains Thailand’s 2026 total tourist arrival forecast at 34.5 million, an increase of 5% year-on-year, from 33 million in 2025. Chinese tourist arrivals in 2026 are estimated at 5 million, an increase of 12% year-on-year, from 4.5 million in 2025.
Following these, the brokerage firm assigns an “Overweight” rating to the sector, selecting CENTEL and ERW as the top-pick stocks.
CENTEL is rated “Buy” with a target price of THB 36.00 per share. DAOL expects Q4 profit to increase year-on-year and quarter-on-quarter, supported by higher bookings and ongoing revenue growth. Additionally, CENTEL will benefit from the opening of a new terminal at the Maldives airport, as around 15% of its revenue comes from the country.
For ERW, the analyst also rated “Buy” on the company, with a target price of THB 2.90 per share. DAOL anticipates profit in 4Q25 to rise quarter-on-quarter, after the business already passed its trough in the second quarter. ERW also has the highest revenue share from Chinese tourists within the group, at 13%.
