CGS International Securities (Thailand) (CGSI) wrote in its latest analysis that the most recent poll indicates that the People’s Party (PP) remains the frontrunner for the upcoming election on 8 February 2026, with the Bhumjaithai Party (BJT) and the Pheu Thai Party (PT) ranking second and third, respectively.
This trend suggests a high likelihood that the PP and BJT will form the new government, with one party leading the coalition and the other leading the opposition.
CGSI views that the Pheu Thai Party’s policies are more closely aligned with those of the Bhumjaithai Party than with the People’s Party. Specifically, the two parties both prioritize short-term economic stimulus measures.
The People’s Party aims to modernize the country, increase competitiveness, and reform organizations to lay a foundation for sustainable and inclusive growth. Meanwhile, Bhumjaithai emphasizes short-term economic stimulus, accelerated investments, and the expansion of the tourism sector to drive growth and support the local economy.
CGSI estimates that if the People’s Party wins the election and successfully forms the new government, the Thai stock market is likely to respond cautiously positively at first, beginning with gains on the country-reform theme. This would be followed by a stock-picking period among investors, with possible volatility as fiscal discipline and policy risks are assessed.
Notably, the People’s Party’s universal welfare policy and reform plans may also stir debates over practicality and fiscal discipline among economists and political experts.
Conversely, if the Bhumjaithai Party leads the new coalition government, CGSI anticipates an even more positive response from the Thai stock market, given investors’ expectations for policy continuity and economic stimulus measures, as well as the importance placed on consumption and grassroots economic promotion.
This is likely to prompt investors to shift portfolios from banks, telecommunications, and export-related stocks to consumer, retail, healthcare, industrial estate, tourism, and other lagging stocks.
Overall, the Bhumjaithai Party is likely to become the party with the second-largest number of MPs and stands a strong chance of leading the coalition government, according to the brokerage firm. In line with this view, the investment strategy has been adjusted; ADVANC, TRUE, and SCB have been removed from CGSI’s Top Picks list and replaced by ERW, GULF, MRDIYT, TIDLOR, SPALI, and WHA.
CGSI’s current Top Picks include BDMS, MRDIYT, CPN, ERW, GULF, MOSHI, MTC, PR9, SPALI, TIDLOR, and WHA. The target for the SET Index at year-end 2026 remains at 1,400 points, representing a price-to-earnings ratio (P/E) of approximately 15 times in 2027, or about 0.75 standard deviation below the 10-year average.
