Central Retail Corporation Public Company Limited (SET: CRC) has emerged from 2025’s portfolio rationalisation with renewed optimism, entering 2026 on an expansion trajectory as signaled at its latest CEO Forum, according to key equity research insights from both UOB Kay Hian Securities (Thailand) (UOBKH) and CGS International Securities (Thailand) (CGSI).
The company’s improved financial position and positive sales momentum are central to analysts’ recommendations, with UOBKH maintaining a ‘Buy’ rating and a target price of THB 25.50 per share.
The brokerage stated that CRC’s Same-Store Sales Growth (SSSG) for the first eight days of March 2026 turned noticeably positive across all major segments in Thailand—Hardline, Fashion, and Food. This was attributed to stabilized consumer purchasing behavior following last year’s e-receipt incentives.
In Vietnam, while food sales are anticipated to cool post-Tet holiday, SSSG is declining less than in 4Q25, which posted -4% year-on-year, reflecting improving operational performance.
Management guidance for 2026 includes:
- Total revenue growth of 4–5% (with SSSG at 1–2%),
- A 10 basis point increase in gross profit margin (GPM),
- SGA-to-revenue maintained, and
- EBITDA growth between 5–7%.
Segment Outlooks and Capital Allocation
- Food: Revenue is projected to grow 5–6% YoY, driven by larger shares for both Go Wholesale and operations in Vietnam. QTD SSSG for Food came in at +2–3% YoY, supporting management’s targets, though a higher wholesale share may cap gross margin gains. Nevertheless, EBITDA growth is still expected YoY.
- Hardline: Revenue aims for 3–4% YoY growth with increasing GPMs. Thai Watsadu remains the primary vehicle for penetration, planning to open 3–5 new outlets, while Auto1 is targeting rapid footprint expansion.
- Fashion: Revenue is targeted to increase by 1–3% YoY. While SSSG remains challenging, management is confident this segment will serve as a key margin driver, thanks to significant inventory optimization efforts completed in 2025.
CRC’s financial health is now the strongest since its IPO, the result of selling Rinascente, cautious capital spending, and debt repayments—Net Debt/EBITDA is now below 2x and Net D/E under 1x.
For 2026, CRC is preparing for more aggressive capital expenditure—budgeting THB 16–18 billion (vs. THB 12 billion in 2025), with 40% for renovations (including seven large-format branches) and 60% for new expansion (adding 13–17 large-format stores in Thailand and three in Vietnam).
UOBKH sees 2026 as a critical pivot year, with CRC setting aside its 2025 portfolio optimization and resuming investments to position for robust expansion by 2027. The company’s dividend yield stands attractively at 6%, with the ex-dividend (XD) date set for April 21.
Meanwhile, CGSI concurs that CRC is evolving into an integrated regional retailer, with Thailand remaining the stable profit base and Vietnam the primary long-term growth engine. Key growth drivers include continued Vietnam expansion, recovery of fashion margins, and scaling of new formats like Auto1, GO Wholesale, and mini go!.
The company’s capital discipline, reflected in its leverage at post-IPO lows, is expected to facilitate both capex acceleration and potential M&A initiatives from 2026 onward.
Trading conditions, while still soft as of early March 2026, display signs of stabilization. Group-wide SSSG for January to March 8 remains slightly negative, though Food posted positive results, and early upward trends have been noted in the Thai market.
CGSI suggests that while CRC’s strategic direction is prudent, investors may require clearer evidence of sustained earnings improvements before re-rating the stock. Areas to watch include Vietnam’s growth momentum, the scalability of Auto1 and GO Wholesale, and the impact of omnichannel and AI initiatives on margins and productivity.
As of 3:21 PM (Bangkok time) on Thursday, the share price of Central Retail Corporation Public Company Limited (SET: CRC) surged by 5.00% or THB 0.90 to THB 18.90, with a trading value of THB 292.03 million.
