Last week, SCB X Public Company Limited (SET: SCB) held an analyst meeting after announcing its 4Q25 and full-year 2025 financial results.
According to Daol Securities (Thailand), SCB provided its financial targets for 2026: loan growth is expected at low to mid-single digit (around 1-5%), focusing on large corporate loans, mortgages, and on Monix Co., Ltd. (MONIX), with a greater emphasis on loan quality. The Net Interest Margin (NIM) is projected to range between 3-3.2%, given that the Monetary Policy Committee (MPC) of the Bank of Thailand is expected to cut policy rates one more time in 2026 to 1%.
Fee income is anticipated to grow at a mid to high-single digit rate, with greater emphasis on Wealth client group. The cost to income ratio is expected at low to mid-40s, inclusive of virtual bank expenses. Credit cost is forecasted at 1.35-1.55%, down from the previous year’s 1.76%, due to a reduced management overlay. Card X Co., Ltd. is also expected to lower its credit cost.
Additionally, SCB aims to maintain a dividend payout ratio at around 80%. Daol expects SCB’s net profit in 1Q26 to increase compared to 4Q25 but slightly decrease versus 1Q25 due to a narrowing NIM amid the downward trend in interest rates. The brokerage recommends a “Buy” rating with a target price of THB 148, estimating that SCB will offer the highest dividend yield among banks at about 7% in 2H25, and an annual dividend yield of 8% for 2025.
TISCO Securities commented that 2025 was a challenging year for SCB, especially in asset quality. However, SCB was satisfied with its group’s financial performance, achieving an 8% net profit growth, mainly driven by non-interest income (Non-NII) and a strong balance sheet.
For the “Generation 1” business, SCB has upgraded banking infrastructure and implemented technology to boost operational efficiency. The company is ready to resume balance sheet expansion but will focus on selective and sustainable growth areas, as overall income remains pressured by lower NIM.
The “Generation 2” group (Card X – credit card business) has gone through a challenging balance sheet restructuring and is ready for renewed growth. For Auto X – auto loan and revolving credit business, efforts are underway to optimize the balance sheet, a process expected to continue this year.
Generation 3 will focus on building internal ecosystem connectivity within SCB.
Generation 1 banking may focus more on large corporate and mortgage loans in 2026 but will transfer credit card products for affluent clients to Generation 2 (Card X), which is expected to expand unsecured loans along with Monix/Abacus. In contrast, Auto X may be cautious in lending, focusing on insurance products and cost control, TISCO noted.
SCB added that while the bank does not set the coverage ratio as a target, no significant decline is expected. Capital management options, such as share buybacks, are still under consideration with a focus on maximizing stakeholder returns.
TISCO maintains a “Hold” recommendation with a target price of THB 142.
Krungsri Securities (KSS) remains “Neutral” on SCB, with a target price of THB 145. KSS has a slightly negative view on the analyst meeting, as SCB’s 2026 NIM guidance is below KSS’s expectation of 3.43%. Hence, KSS trimmed its 2026 net profit forecast by 4%. Nevertheless, SCB still offers a top-tier dividend yield among banking stocks, at nearly 8% per annum.
