KGI Securities (Thailand) has projected a net profit for GFPT Public Company Limited (SET: GFPT) in 4Q25 at THB 453 million, marking an 18% year-on-year increase but a significant 37% decline quarter-on-quarter—falling short of previous estimates.
The annual growth is attributed to an expanded gross margin from decreased feed costs, while the quarterly contraction is largely due to a drop in farm segment sales and higher selling, general, and administrative expenses relative to sales.
Total sales revenue is forecast to decrease by 7% year-on-year and 4% quarter-on-quarter to THB 4.5 billion, primarily hit by an 18% year-on-year decline in export volume (8,000 tons). The export slump is linked to yen depreciation, impacting the crucial Japanese market—making up around 25% of GFPT’s export sales and holding higher margins—as well as softer chicken prices.
Gross profit margin (GPM) is expected to climb by 2.5 percentage points year-on-year on lower feed costs, but normalize to 15.3% for the quarter, dropping 5 percentage points from the prior quarter due to both a high comparative base and lower meat prices.
The SG&A-to-sales ratio is set to rise year-on-year and quarter-on-quarter to 8.6% following reduced sales. However, the share of profit from joint ventures is anticipated to jump to THB 168 million (+42% year-on-year, +49% quarter-on-quarter), mainly benefiting from improved results at McKey’s.
Looking ahead, KGI expects GFPT’s 1Q26 earnings to stay flat quarter-on-quarter, weighed by seasonal export weakness and continued currency pressures, with some relief from recovering domestic chicken prices. Year-on-year, earnings are projected to decline, hit by softer sales and lower profit-sharing. Operational normalization at GFN is foreseen for 2Q–3Q26 as staffing issues are addressed.
In line with these pressures, KGI has revised down its 2025 and 2026 net profit forecasts by 6% and 7%, respectively, now expecting THB 2.4 billion (+24% year-on-year) in 2025 before normalizing to THB 2.3 billion (-8% year-on-year) in 2026. The revised target price is THB 10.80 per share, down from THB 11.60, with a maintained “Neutral” rating.
