CP Axtra Public Company Limited (SET: CPAXT) recently released its fourth-quarter results for 2025, reporting a net profit of 2.6 billion baht, representing a significant 35% year-on-year decline. While major brokers acknowledge the impact of one-off disruptions, their outlooks for the retail giant diverge significantly regarding its valuation and future risks.
Tisco Securities: Maintaining Optimism amid Temporary Setbacks
Tisco Securities maintains its BUY rating for CPAXT with a target price of 21.00 baht, citing that the fourth-quarter profit, while down, actually beat their own estimates by 6%. Analysts at Tisco attribute the earnings decline primarily to a one-off temporary halt in online operations and sales promotions within the retail segment.
Despite the retail struggle, Tisco highlights the Wholesale business as a point of resilience, with revenue growing 5.7% in 4Q25, supported by new store openings and the acquisition of Renewed Hope in Malaysia. While 1Q26 same-store sales growth (SSSG) remains slightly negative in the low single digits, Tisco views the upcoming opening of the Happitat development as a positive driver that remains on track with management expectations.
CGSI: A Cautious Upgrade as Risks Priced In
CGS International (CGSI) has upgraded its rating for CPAXT from Reduce to HOLD, but with a much lower target price of 16.20 baht—effectively matching the current market price. CGSI provides a more granular look at the 4Q25 disruption, identifying a cyberattack in late 3Q25 that impaired inventory visibility and online operations well into the fourth quarter. This incident, combined with demand distortion from government co-payment schemes, caused Lotus’s (Retail) SSSG to plummet by 7.6%.
CGSI expressed particular concern regarding the Happitat mixed-use development. Management disclosed that only about 50% of the space is currently signed, and CGSI warns that delays in tenant fit-outs could lead to disappointing day-one occupancy.
While both brokers agree that the wholesale division (Makro) remains the group’s “earnings stabilizer,” the path forward for the retail division remains under scrutiny. Tisco views the current dip as a buying opportunity based on a higher DCF-derived valuation, whereas CGSI believes the market has now correctly priced in the near-term earnings risks and structural pressures from online competition.
