A series of coordinated military actions by the United States and Israel against Iran on Saturday have caused heightened market volatility, affecting oil shipments and aviation across the Middle East. The situation quickly escalated when Iran responded with missile launches toward Israel, amplifying concerns about further disruptions in the region and putting investors on high alert.
The attacks, which reportedly targeted Iranian leadership, provoked immediate retaliation from Tehran and raised alarm throughout oil-producing Gulf Arab nations regarding potential regional instability. Following news that Iran’s Supreme Leader Khamenei had died in the aftermath of these strikes, Iranian state media reported that he had been attending to his official duties at the time, while Iranian authorities characterized the attack as cowardly.
Significantly, several major oil companies, trading firms, and tanker owners have ceased moving crude, fuel, and LNG cargoes through the Strait of Hormuz, a pivotal global chokepoint for energy transit. This suspension came after Iran announced the closure of the waterway to all shipping and, according to trading sources, local vessels reportedly received radio communications from Iran’s Revolutionary Guards declaring passage through the strait forbidden.
Aviation authorities across the region responded to the growing hostilities. Thailand’s Civil Aviation Authority (CAAT) issued an advisory urging travelers to stay informed due to the ongoing military actions and airspace restrictions. Both Israel and Iran implemented full airspace closures for civilian flights, advising the public to avoid travel to airports until further notice. Countries such as the United Arab Emirates, Qatar, and Kuwait also blocked portions of their airspace as a precaution against security threats, affecting major flight corridors connecting Europe, Asia, and the Asia-Pacific region.
BLS Wealth, a research arm of Bualuang Securities, forecasts that the escalating U.S.-Iran conflict may significantly support upstream energy stocks while posing challenges to other sectors in the Thai market. The conflict, which intensified after demands for Iran to reach a nuclear agreement within 10-15 days, is expected to trigger sharp movements in global oil prices—mirroring previous major conflicts including Iraq-Kuwait (1990), U.S.-Iraq (2003), Russia-Ukraine (2022), and Iran-Israel (2025).
Historically, such conflicts have led to an average oil price surge of around 9% within the first two weeks, with the potential for even higher increases if the crisis continues. Notably, oil prices soared by 21-25% within one month after the Iraq-Kuwait and Russia-Ukraine wars, while the U.S.-Iraq war saw prices climb by approximately 12%.
BLS Wealth anticipates that should oil prices rise by 10% amid the current conflict, net profit for the SET Index could be boosted by around 4% and core profit by 2%, primarily driven by the energy sector (excluding power plants), which accounts for about 18% of total SET profit. Upstream energy companies could see net profit gains of as much as 20% from inventory gains if oil prices spike. However, core profit impacts are expected to be more modest without these accounting gains.
While the energy, telecommunications, and hospital sectors could continue delivering positive returns, BLS projects that the broad SET index could decline 4-5% in a month if the conflict drags on, with market corrections up to 13% possible under prolonged tensions. Bank and retail stocks may see smaller declines compared to the broader market.
On the downside, sectors highly exposed to energy costs—such as construction materials (down 30%), contractors (down 8%), transportation (down 5%), and power plants (down 2%, but as much as 10% for SPP power plants)—are expected to experience more pronounced negative impacts on core profit.
Overall, BLS Wealth views the upstream energy sector as the primary beneficiary in the case of continued geopolitical instability, while other sectors may face heightened pressure if oil supply disruptions persist.
