Maybank Securities (Thailand) has expressed a positive outlook for the Thai consumer finance sector, following constructive discussions during its Consumer Finance Day held in late February 2026. This is underpinned by favorable trends in truck loan demand and improving asset quality as used truck prices rebounded.
All consumer finance operators present at the event indicated that the cost of funds is likely to fall by up to 30 basis points in 2026, as older debentures are repriced at lower coupon rates. Currently, new debenture rates are 100 basis points below the sector’s average funding cost and below rates seen over the past year.
Despite a projected five basis point decline in loan yields year-on-year, due to an increasing mix of secured, high-quality loans, Maybank expects the sector’s net interest margin (NIM) to rise by 20 basis points to 14.2% in 2026, driven by lower funding costs. Saksiam Leasing (SAK), which secures 95% of its funding through floating-rate bank loans, stands to benefit most from a reduction in policy interest rates.
Companies reported minimal concern regarding asset quality, highlighting that cash collections in January and February 2026 have exceeded expectations. While outlooks for stable credit costs reflect underlying economic uncertainties, Maybank anticipates that sector credit costs will decrease by 11 basis points to 3.62% in 2026, led by Tidlor Holdings (TIDLOR), Asia Sermkij Leasing (ASK), and Srisawad Corporation (SAWAD).
Additionally, Maybank projects the sector’s non-performing loan (NPL) ratio will fall by 10 basis points year-on-year to 3.2%, as robust loan growth outpaces NPL formation.
The analyst has raised earnings forecasts and target prices for Muangthai Capital (MTC), TIDLOR, and Krungthai Card (KTC), reflecting higher NIMs and lower credit costs. The sector as a whole appears attractively valued, trading at just 9 times 2026 estimated earnings and 0.9 times book value, even after underperforming the broader SET Index by 22% in 2025 and 10% year-to-date.
Earnings growth for ASK and TIDLOR is expected to surpass the sector average in 2026, at 45% and 12% year-on-year, respectively, compared with the industry average of 9%. Rising return on equity (ROE) is forecast for ASK, SAK, and TIDLOR over the next three years, while other consumer finance providers are expected to see ROEs moderate.
Following these, Maybank has updated its top-pick stocks, switching from MTC to TIDLOR, which has a strong truck loan portfolio (20% of its total loans), and ASK, where approximately two-thirds of loans are truck-related. KTC is also favored for its high return on assets (ROA) and robust dividend yield.
The year 2026 is seen as a turning point for both truck loan demand and sector-wide asset quality, noted Maybank. However, key risks remain, namely the possibility of a prolonged U.S.-Iran conflict, which could result in sustained high energy prices and elevated bond yields.
