Shares of Indorama Ventures Public Company Limited (SET: IVL) surged by 1.3% to close at THB 23.60 on Thursday. The stock has skyrocketed 25.5% since the start of U.S.-Israel and Iran war even as the Thai stock market slipped. According to Bualuang Securities, Indorama Ventures is poised for robust growth in 2026, bolstered by favorable demand-supply dynamics in the petrochemical market and a supportive pricing structure, despite ongoing geopolitical tensions in some regions.
A key driver of IVL’s positive outlook is the recovery of the PET (Polyethylene Terephthalate) resin market, used widely in beverage bottles and packaging, which has rebounded during the high season. The PET market, IVL’s main product, has shown signs of recovery as new capacity additions remain limited while demand rises, especially in the first quarter—a traditional peak season. As a result, PET price spreads have increased significantly.
In the first two months of 2026, PET spreads in Asia jumped 74% year-on-year (YoY) and 55% quarter-on-quarter (QoQ) to reach USD 103 per ton. Meanwhile, spreads in Western markets rose 21% YoY and 26% QoQ to USD 276 per ton.
Global supply constraints stemming from conflict have further supported product pricing. IVL’s globally diversified production base limited direct exposure to raw material shortages—such as the risk from potential closures of the Strait of Hormuz. In fact, the company benefited from higher product prices as several Asian and Middle Eastern producers declared force majeure, significantly tightening supply. For instance, major Chinese PET producers, accounting for roughly 21% of global PET capacity, halted operations, lifting PET price spreads.
Additionally, soaring freight rates have supported IVL’s margins, as the company employs an import-parity pricing structure that allows it to pass on increased shipping costs to customers, positively impacting profit margins.
Analysts note that if average PET price spreads in 2026 exceed the base case of USD 260 per ton, profits could see a notable boost. At USD 264 per ton, profit could rise by about 5%, while a stronger increase to USD 326 per ton could yield up to an 87% profit upside.
Despite a recent 36% rally in IVL shares over the past two months, analysts believe there’s further upside potential, with IVL continuing to outperform peers in the petrochemical sector. The strong fundamentals warrant a new end-2026 target price of THB 28 per share, up from THB 24, based on a P/BV ratio of 1.2x, still below the long-term average of 1.6x. This suggests plenty of room for future share price appreciation.
