On Tuesday at 11:25 AM (Bangkok time), the share price of Thai Oil Public Company Limited (SET: TOP) surged by 6.18% or THB 2.75 to THB 47.25, with a trading value of THB 812.60 million.
Kasikorn Securities (KS) has set a fundamental valuation for Thai Oil at THB 53.80 per share and notes that an improving situation in the Middle East is providing a positive momentum for the company, which had faced risks related to feedstock shortages.
In addition, for the first quarter of 2026, data from Biznews indicates Singapore’s Gross Refining Margin (GRM) increased by 35% quarter-on-quarter, while basic aromatics spreads rose by 10-13% from the previous quarter. These factors are expected to have a positive impact on TOP’s earnings in 1Q26.
TOP is currently trading at 0.5 times its 2026 price-to-book value (PBV), with a Return on Equity (ROE) of 5.4%. This remains below the regional average of 1.04 times (with an ROE of 9%). However, when the company completes its Clean Fuel Project (CFP), the analyst suggests there is potential for its valuation multiples to be revised upward in line with the expected increase in ROE.
DAOL Securities (Thailand) has upgraded its recommendation for TOP from ‘Hold’ to ‘Buy’ with a target price of THB 50.00 per share, citing anticipated strong earnings in 1Q26 and the view that risks related to crude oil supply have subsided in 2Q26. The brokerage maintains a more optimistic outlook on TOP’s business due to continued strength in product spread and crude prices (crack spreads) following the closure of the Strait of Hormuz.
According to the analyst, TOP is effectively managing crude procurement risks, supported by three main reasons:
(1) The company is set to benefit from elevated crack spreads, especially in middle distillate products, amid supply shortages triggered by recent conflicts between Israel, the United States, and Iran.
(2) With high and stable crude prices, TOP is expected to record significant stock gains (net of NRV) in 1Q26, likely sufficient to offset potential hedging losses.
(3) Crude supply risk has decreased, as TOP has successfully diversified its crude sources from regions outside the Middle East and is expected to maintain high refinery run rates.
Furthermore, DAOL maintains its forecast for TOP’s normal profit at THB 9.3 billion in 2026 and THB 10.3 billion in 2027, compared to THB 4.9 billion in 2025. Key assumptions include higher refinery utilization rates, improved market GRM, and reduced financial costs.
After a 17% decline in TOP’s share price since the outbreak of the Middle East conflict, DAOL notes that much of the crude supply risk has already been priced in. Therefore, the analyst has upgraded the recommendation to ‘Buy’, maintaining the target price of THB 50.00 based on a 2026 PBV of 0.63 times, which remains below the five-year PBV average of -0.8SD.
