Mr. Suwat Wattanapornprom, Director of the Research Division, Investment Strategy, at Krungsri Securities (KSS), stated in the “Kaohoon” program on March 25, 2026, that the Stock Exchange of Thailand (SET) Index will maintain the positive momentum in the medium-term, after the U.S. proposed a more lenient peace deal to Iran, especially on nuclear and missile development. Furthermore, Iran has loosen its blockade on the Strait of Hormuz, allowing non-hostile ships to pass with small fees.
Mr. Suwat estimated that Israel will likely de-escalate its attack on Iran, after several countries have offered to mediate the peace talk including Pakistan, China, and other Middle East nations. However, if the attack did continue but did not target any crucial energy infrastructure, the tension is likely to subside.
Regarding the Thai economy, the analyst disclosed that tourist arrival surged 15% week-on-week, and 7.5% year-on-year from last year’s low base. Arrivals from non-five major countries have climbed 9% week-on-week. Additionally, Prime Minister Anutin Charnvirakul is preparing for the formation of the new cabinet, which may enable the government to operate at full capacity one month earlier than expected. Furthermore, imports to Thailand rose 32% YoY, most of which consisted of raw material, raising the attractiveness for investment in the country.
Mr. Suwat reiterated that if the 2026 average oil prices do not exceed $95 per barrel (currently $76 per barrel year-to-date), the up and mid-stream energy sectors will benefit from improved stock gain. For 2026, he forecasted that the SET Index will be trading at earnings-per-share of THB 94 on price-to-earning ratio of 17x, with a resistance level of 1,600.
Mr. Suwat highlighted stocks that benefited from the news of Thai oil tanker safely passed the Strait of Hormuz including:
- SCC: A target price was given at THB 218.
- BCP: A target price was given at THB 47.50.
- THAI: Which benefited from the declining oil prices, as fuel cost contributed to a larger share of expenses. Additionally, the company may potentially be added to MSCI Index on May’s rebalance round. A target price was given at THB 8.70.
For tourism stocks, Mr. Suwat recommends equities that have plunged deeper than the SET Index and are related to other tourist segments, such as AWC and CENTEL. For domestic play stocks, he recommends stocks with the investment theme (ANATA, GULF, and AOT), and the government stimulus theme (CPAXT and KTB).
Mr. Suwat remarked that the explosion incident at Valero Energy Corporation’s refinery in the U.S. will likely increase the 2026 average refining margin from $5 to $6 – 7.
Mr. Suwat also urged caution on the tech or AI CAPEX cycle related stocks after OpenAI shut down its Sora video generator, which raised concerns over the profitability of aggressive AI investments.
