Maybank Securities (Thailand) has reiterated its ‘Buy’ recommendation on BCPG Public Company Limited (SET: BCPG), maintaining a target price of THB10 per share and highlighting the company as a top-pick stock for investors seeking attractive entry points with strong growth and yield potential.
According to the brokerage, BCPG is set to achieve robust expansion, with core profit forecasted to grow by 37% year-on-year in 2026, primarily fueled by rising capacity payment rates in the PJM market, along with the first full-year contribution from the Monsoon project.
At its current trading level, BCPG’s valuation remains compelling, with a projected 2026 price-to-earnings (P/E) ratio of just 7.8 times, compared to the peer group average of 14.8 times. The anticipated dividend yield is also attractive at 6.4%.
Driving BCPG’s earnings momentum, pricing in the PJM market is expected to stay elevated through at least the 2029/30 delivery year, as ongoing supply-demand tightness underpins capacity rates. Maybank projects that PJM peak load growth will accelerate from around 1% CAGR in 2022–25 to 3.6% in 2025–30, while annual demand is forecast to rise by 4–6GW, outstripping annual reliable capacity additions of just 2–3GW.
Combined with continued power plant retirements and a higher IRM, these dynamics support Maybank’s assumption of capacity prices at USD333 per MW-day and are set to lift CCGT profit by 4%, 15%, and 36% in 2026–28, respectively.
Reflecting the company’s strong 2025 performance, Maybank has upgraded its net profit forecasts for 2026 and 2027 by 12% and 2%, respectively. This revision accounts for stronger contributions from the CCGT and Monsoon projects, though partly offset by the removal of some assets, notably in Taiwan (solar) and Vietnam (wind).
The share of profits from the CCGT segment is raised due to higher capacity prices and outperformance, while the Monsoon project’s contribution is boosted by strong results in 4Q25. However, operating profit projections have been revised downward due to the aforementioned asset removals. Overall, the core profit growth outlook remains positive at a projected 37% YoY in 2026, with a three-year CAGR of 15%.
In addition to its robust growth prospects, BCPG’s balance sheet is highlighted as a key strength, providing significant capacity for mergers and acquisitions (M&A). The company’s gearing stands at 0.7x at the end of 2025, well below its net IBD/equity covenant limit of 3.0x, leaving up to THB 64 billion in headroom for future deals.
While BCPG is not currently engaged in any negotiations, the company is expected to continue seeking opportunities to enhance its portfolio and support sustained earnings growth.
