Kalvalee Thongsomaung, a fundamental investment analyst at Bualuang Securities, disclosed to “Kaohoon” that after the Fuel Fund Executive Committee resolved to reduce the diesel and gasoline price compensation rates, which resulted in a retail price increase for all types of fuel by THB 6 per liter, effective from March 26 onwards. This serves as a direct negative signal to the beverage sector stocks.
She views that beverage stocks such as Osotspa Public Company Limited (SET: OSP) and Carabao Group Public Company Limited (SET: CBG) will face pressure from these factors:
- Higher logistics costs due to nationwide distribution, as transportation expenses account for approximately 3% of total costs.
- Weakened purchasing power, which may slightly impact the consumption of M-150 and Carabao energy drinks—from the usual two bottles per day down to one.
- Rising natural gas costs used in glass bottle blowing, affecting both OSP and CBG.
- Increased costs of plastic packaging. For OSP, its consumer products segment is likely to face higher raw material prices no later than May 2026.
The analyst estimated that the overall cost impact on OSP and CBG will likely exceed 10% of total expenses.
Despite this, OSP stocks are still rated as a “Buy” with a target price maintained at THB 20 per share, as first-quarter 2026 core profits are projected to rise compared to the same period last year—thanks to higher profit margins and growing sales in energy and health-related drinks. However, considering the aforementioned negative factors, the target price could be adjusted down by 10% to THB 18 per share.
As for CBG, the “Buy” recommendation remains, with a target price set at THB 58 per share; yet, if these scenarios occur, the target price might also be reduced by 10% to THB 50, reflecting higher overall costs. CBG’s first-quarter 2026 performance is expected to see a profit drop both year-on-year and quarter-on-quarter, due to falling export sales and reduced revenue from distribution.
Veeravat Virochpoka, Assistant Managing Director at Finansia Syrus Securities, told “Kaohoon” that the 6-baht-per-liter rise in all types of fuel, as announced by the government, will have an immediate and clear impact on the beverage sector.
The industry is tied to oil prices in several aspects, including packaging costs. Apart from logistics, the cost of plastic bottles will be directly affected because plastics are derived from petrochemicals, which are linked to oil prices. In the short run, most producers will try to freeze product prices to avoid impacting consumers, compensating by managing other expenses.
As for the trend in product price increases, if oil prices remain high beyond April, some operators unable to bear the additional costs may have to consider adjusting product prices upwards. But if the war ends within April, the effect could be alleviated.
