ASL Securities has released an analysis on the first quarter outlook for PTT Oil and Retail Business Public Company Limited (SET: OR), projecting a rise in net profit from the previous quarter. The Lifestyle business segment is expected to play a key role in sustaining stable growth, especially through Café Amazon, which continues to expand with an increasing number of locations and strong coffee market demand.
The Mobility business, however, faces challenges towards the end of the quarter due to geopolitical tensions in the Middle East. While fuel sales volume is anticipated to increase as consumers accelerate refueling, marketing margins remain under pressure from rising global oil prices. The aviation fuel segment has also been impacted by a decline in flight frequency.
Notably, OR has not incurred any additional extraordinary expenses. When compared to the same period last year, operational performance is expected to slow due to decreased revenue from Cambodia, the market of which the company is currently considering reducing its exposure.
For the full year 2026, ASL estimates OR’s net profit at THB 11.4 billion, up 1.6% year-on-year, reflecting robust profit base maintenance. Total revenue is forecast at THB 675 billion, marking a 2.6% increase year-on-year, mainly driven by continued expansion in the Mobility segment, including plans to increase service stations and develop a comprehensive ecosystem, despite ongoing oil price volatility.
Revenue from the aviation fuel business is likely to decline in line with fewer tourists and a weakened economic outlook. Meanwhile, the Lifestyle business will continue to be supported by its Blue Card membership base, with Café Amazon sales projected to grow by 6.5% or approximately 457 million cups.
The Global business segment is expected to recover as new revenue sources are developed to offset the downturn in Cambodia. This is anticipated to improve the company’s EBITDA margin to 3.4% from 3.1% in 2025, reflecting better cost management and profit stability. However, the Mobility business will likely continue to experience margin pressure from volatile marketing spreads in the short term.
Sales and administrative expenses (SG&A) are expected at 3.6% of revenue, similar to the previous year, despite the expansion of branch numbers and indirect impacts from the Middle East conflict. This demonstrates the company’s efficiency in expense management.
Following these, ASL Securities maintains a ‘Buy’ recommendation for OR, setting a 2026 target price at THB 15.00 per share.
