Asia Plus Securities wrote that Thailand’s Ministry of Energy is preparing to request cooperation from domestic oil refineries to channel their crisis-period refining profits into the Oil Fuel Fund to provide assistance to the public.
In addition, there are ongoing considerations about revising the formula for refining margins, as recent profits have been higher compared to previous years. The ministry is also considering the implementation of a windfall tax, tasking relevant agencies to study the issue and present their findings to the Cabinet on April 7, 2026.
According to the brokerage, the simplest approach for obtaining cooperation from the refinery group is by requesting voluntary donations, a practice that has occurred in the past. For example, in 2008, when global crude prices surged to $140 per barrel, refineries supported fuel price reductions for the transportation sector over a six-month period.
Only Thai-owned refiners participated in such support initiatives in the past, including Thai Oil (TOP), PTT Aromatics and Refining (PTTAR, now PTT Global Chemical or PTTGC), IRPC (IRPC), and Bangchak Corporation (BCP).
In contrast, foreign-owned refiners such as Esso (Thailand) (ESSO) and Star Petroleum Refining (SPRC) did not participate. Similarly, in response to the late-2022 energy crisis, PTT (PTT) donated THB 3 billion to the government, as recorded in its 1Q23 financial report.
However, if the government proceeds with a structural recalibration of refinery margins, Asia Plus anticipates that such a measure would not be easily or quickly implemented. Historically, no government has succeeded in changing the refinery margin formula, as refiners often argue that their operations adhere to standard business practices. Any government intervention or imposition of rules would be viewed as interference in business operations.
Additionally, the majority of refiners are listed on the Stock Exchange of Thailand (SET) and have both local and international shareholders, requiring operational clarity. Government intervention could result in refiners opting not to operate at full production capacity or increasing exports of refined products instead.
Overall, Asia Plus assesses the news as a negative sentiment impacting refinery stocks and PTT until clearer policy directions are established. While the outcome may be limited to voluntary donations—with potentially insignificant effects on profit and financial statements as in previous cases—state intervention inevitably introduces operational uncertainty for listed companies.
